TPX And CYNO: Not Everything Is About Earnings


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In a week inundated with earnings news, we thought we would take a moment to look at two stocks that have seen significant activity lately for reasons other than quarterly results.  Both have seen notable recent moves in the underlying stock, paired with significant increases in Implied Volatility.

The two stocks are Cynosure, Inc. (CYNO) and Tempur Sealy International, Inc. (TPX).  Outwardly, they have little in common.  CYNO is a maker of lasers used in plastic surgery and medical procedures, which has seen its stock spike recently on takeover speculation. Meanwhile TPX is a mattress maker that has suffered a dramatic sell off in the wake of losing its biggest customer. 

But while each has a dramatically different story, both have touched notable IV levels in recent days for reasons primarily unrelated to an upcoming earnings announcement, which makes them worth some attention in a week dominated by talk of corporate results.

For CYNO, Implied Volatility started rising in mid-December to reach a 52-week high by mid-January.  There was a brief dip, followed by a renewed spike in IV this week.  Levels have now reached 83.5 compared to a 1-year average of 37.6.

Shares of CYNO jumped on Tuesday, rising $5.90, or 12.4%, to close at $53.40.  With the advance, the stock approached levels last seen in September.

The advance followed up on a rally last week, when the stock rose notably on  takeover speculation.  On January 23, CYNO jumped following a Bloomberg article that said the company is exploring strategic options, including a possible sale.

More than one analyst has targeted $60 for CYNO shares.

Cynosure does have an earnings announcement coming up, though IV has jumped well above typical pre-earnings levels for the stock.  The company is scheduled to announce its results before the market opens on February 7.

The ATM Straddle premium for CYNO for the 17-Feb-17 expiration is $8.11, or 15.6%.  The average implied straddle going into earnings announcements over the past four quarters has been 10.1%. 

The post-earnings moves for the stock have underperformed that mark in three of the last four quarters.  The exception was the last earnings release, which took place in October.  The stock dropped 12.3% following the news, less than the 10% move that had been expected going into the announcement.

Turning to Tempur Sealy, shares of the company plunged during Monday's session on news the company's contracts with Mattress Firm, a large retailer in the sector and Tempur Sealy's biggest customer, have been terminated.  Now brands like Sealy and Tempur-Pedic will no longer be available at Mattress Firm locations. 

According to Tempur Sealy, Mattess Firm was asking for "significant economic concessions."  Mattress Firm reportedly represented just over 20% of Tempur Sealy's sales.

The stock, which finished last week at $63.19, declined 28% following the news on Monday and continued to lose ground in Tuesday's session, closing Tuesday at $43.00 before a rebound on Wednesday.

Implied Volatility for TPX began advancing in mid-December, eventually reaching 57.9 on January 30.  It came off that level a bit on Tuesday, dipping to 54.4.  Monday's peak was the highest IV level since last February.

Tempur Sealy is expected to announce its next quarterly earnings report around February 16.  More than the results themselves, the earnings announcement could provide a good opportunity for the company to give additional details about what its post-Mattress Firm business might look like

The ATM Straddle premium for TPX for the 17-Feb-17 expiration is currently $4.15, or 9.5%.  For the 17-Mar-17 expiration, the ATM Straddle premium of $5.51, or 12.6%.