Urban Outfitters Earnings and Volatility


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Urban Outfitters (URBN)

Earnings Release Tuesday, March 7, After the Market Close

Retailers have provided some of the bigger headline-generating reports of the past few weeks.  The industry has been in some turmoil lately, especially among department stores and mall-based chains.  Most of the big names in the industry have released their results over the past couple weeks.  But there are a couple names set to report this week.

This includes Urban Outfitters, a teen clothing retailer.

Implied Volatility for URBN has been rising since mid-January.  The advance took IV to 60.9 on March 3, its highest level since May.

Urban Outfitters has experienced substantial post-earnings moves over the last four quarters.  Last time around, the stock plunged 12.1% in the wake of its quarterly report, compared to an implied straddle headed into the release of 9.5%.  This followed three consecutive blockbuster reports, each inspiring a post-earnings rally of at least 13%.  All told, the average absolute post-earnings move over the past four quarters is 14.4%, compared to the average pre-earnings expectation of nearly 10%.

This time around, the company is expected to earn $0.56 per share for the quarter, down from $0.61 per share last year.  Analysts are looking for the company to post a top-line figure of $1.04 billion.  This would be up about 3% from last year's mark.

The ATM Straddle premium for URBN for the March 10 expiration is $2.50, or 9.7%.

Historical Earnings Statistics