GS to Release Earnings on January 16 option traders are expecting a ± 8.4% move for this earnings

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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) is scheduled to release earnings on January 16, 2019, before the market opens, and will hold a conference call at 9:30 AM ET on the same day. The stock currently trades at 167.05, which is 24.7% lower than the close following its last reported earnings, trading with a range of 151.70 to 234.06 since that time.

Expected Price Volatility

Currently, option traders are expecting a ± 8.4% move for this earnings, and during the previous earnings release, the stock experienced a +3.0% move. Over the last 12 quarters, the absolute average move has been ± 2.1%, with a minimum move of 0.2% and a maximum move of 4.7%. GS has only experienced 2 larger-than-expected earnings moves in the last 12 quarters.

Earnings Price Pattern

The MarketChameleon earnings price pattern has detected two notable historical trends.
1 Day Before Earnings:For each of the last 7 quarters, GS stock price has gone up on the day before earnings. It has had an average gain of +1.1% during that span.
3 Days Before Earnings:For 5 of the last 6 quarters (83%), the stock price has gone up in the 3 days before earnings. Over that period, it has an average gain of +1.2%.

Earnings Option Strategies

MarketChameleon's option strategy analysis shows that selling out-of-the-money calls the day before earnings had 75% winning occurrences, for an average gain of +54.3%. Additionally, selling at-the-money straddles resulted in 58% winning occurrences, for an average return of +5.7%.

Stock and option trading involves risk may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this newsletter are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This newsletter is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither MarketChameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades.
Note: selling options can result in losses of greater than 100%. Average returns from selling options is calculated based on net change in value against the initial theoretical option value. Prior to buying or selling an option, you should read the Options Clearing Corporation's Characteristics and Risks of Options.