Earnings Report April 16: Historical Moves vs Expected moves


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The table below shows stocks with upcoming expected earnings and implied moves calculated from option prices. The implied moves are compared to the 4 qtr average moves.

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Current Overestimated and Underestimated

Implied Earnings Moves Relative to 4-Qtr Historical Average

Info Upcoming Earnings Prior 4 Quarters Stock %Move
Symbol Mkt Cap Date Implied Move Abs. Avg. Move Relative to 4-Qtr Avg.
MLNX 6.4 B 16-Apr-2019 AMC ± 1.1% 4.7% -3.7%
ERIC 32.2 B 17-Apr-2019 BMO ± 6.3% 8.7% -2.4%
ABT 136.1 B 17-Apr-2019 BMO ± 3.2% 1.7% +1.5%
UAL 23.0 B 16-Apr-2019 AMC ± 5.2% 6.5% -1.2%
CSX 64.1 B 16-Apr-2019 AMC ± 3.1% 4.4% -1.2%
NFLX 152.1 B 16-Apr-2019 AMC ± 7.0% 5.9% +1.1%
TXT 12.5 B 17-Apr-2019 BMO ± 5.0% 6.0% -1.0%
PEP 174.6 B 17-Apr-2019 BMO ± 1.9% 2.9% -1.0%
KSU 12.0 B 17-Apr-2019 BMO ± 3.0% 3.4% -0.3%
BK 52.0 B 17-Apr-2019 BMO ± 3.7% 3.9% -0.3%
MS 79.3 B 17-Apr-2019 BMO ± 3.0% 3.2% -0.2%
USB 80.6 B 17-Apr-2019 BMO ± 2.3% 2.3% +0.0%

The implied earnings move is interpolated from the market prices of options that have the nearest term expiration within the earnings date. The implied move is derived using the at-the-money implied volatility and is indicative of the expected magnitude of the stock price movement (which can be in either direction). For example, a 10% implied earnings move means the market expects the stock price to go up or down 10% after earnings. The implied move is compared to the actual absolute average move of the stock price from the previous 4 earnings announcements to determine if the current implied move is overestimating or underestimating the upcoming earnings move. This list only contains stocks that have at least an average daily option volume of 1000.

 

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The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.