Earnings Report June 12: Overestimated vs Underestimated Moves

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The following list of stocks are expected to report earnings. The implied earnings moves are calculated from option prices and compared to historical average moves. Traders will typically create strategies around earnings using options to capitalize on expected earnings volatility.

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Current Overestimated and Underestimated

Implied Earnings Moves Relative to 4-Qtr Historical Average

Info Upcoming Earnings Prior 4 Quarters Stock %Move
Symbol Mkt Cap Date Implied Move Abs. Avg. Move Relative to 4-Qtr Avg.
HEXO 466.6 M 12-Jun-2019 AMC ± 16.1% 2.5% +13.6%
TLRD 296.1 M 12-Jun-2019 AMC ± 26.1% 21.6% +4.5%
LULU 21.2 B 12-Jun-2019 AMC ± 10.0% 14.2% -4.2%
RH 1.9 B 12-Jun-2019 AMC ± 16.2% 19.1% -2.9%


The implied earnings move is interpolated from the market prices of options that have the nearest term expiration within the earnings date. The implied move is derived using the at-the-money implied volatility and is indicative of the expected magnitude of the stock price movement (which can be in either direction). For example, a 10% implied earnings move means the market expects the stock price to go up or down 10% after earnings. The implied move is compared to the actual absolute average move of the stock price from the previous 4 earnings announcements to determine if the current implied move is overestimating or underestimating the upcoming earnings move. This list only contains stocks that have at least an average daily option volume of 1000.


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Note: selling options can result in losses of greater than 100%. Average returns from selling options is calculated based on net change in value against the initial theoretical option value. Prior to buying or selling an option, you should read the Options Clearing Corporation's Characteristics and Risks of Options.
The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.