Earnings Alerts July 24: Overestimated and Underestimated Moves


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The following stocks are expected to announce earnings. The implied moves are calculated from the options straddle prices and compared to historical moves as a reference. Options are typically used by traders to capitalize on expected earnings volatility.

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Current Overestimated and Underestimated

Implied Earnings Moves Relative to 4-Qtr Historical Average

Info Upcoming Earnings Prior 4 Quarters Stock %Move
Symbol Mkt Cap Date Implied Move Abs. Avg. Move Relative to 4-Qtr Avg.
DBD 769.0 M 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 16.8% 26.2% -9.3%
EQT 4.0 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 9.8% 2.7% +7.1%
XLNX 32.2 B 24-Jul-2019 AMC ± 8.1% 15.0% -6.9%
CVE 8.0 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 8.4% 2.6% +5.8%
WPG 645.3 M 24-Jul-2019 AMC ± 9.0% 4.1% +4.9%
TPX 4.2 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 8.4% 3.6% +4.8%
WWE 5.3 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 10.5% 5.8% +4.7%
HP 5.5 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 7.5% 3.1% +4.5%
ODFL 13.0 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 7.1% 2.7% +4.4%
AXTA 7.1 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 6.5% 2.3% +4.2%
HBAN 14.7 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 4.6% 0.9% +3.7%
IVZ 7.9 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 5.8% 2.1% +3.7%
PTC 10.7 B 24-Jul-2019 AMC ± 8.3% 5.0% +3.4%
CCJ 4.0 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 4.5% 1.4% +3.1%
F 40.6 B 24-Jul-2019 AMC ± 4.5% 7.4% -3.0%
FB 577.6 B 24-Jul-2019 AMC ± 6.9% 9.9% -3.0%
AEP 44.2 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 3.5% 1.3% +2.2%
ALGN 21.8 B 24-Jul-2019 AMC ± 9.7% 7.5% +2.2%
BMY 70.4 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 3.9% 1.7% +2.2%
AEM 11.6 B 24-Jul-2019 AMC ± 6.2% 4.0% +2.2%
LUV 29.4 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 4.4% 6.0% -1.6%
BUD   25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 3.9% 5.4% -1.6%
VMC 17.9 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 6.7% 8.2% -1.5%
LVS 50.4 B 24-Jul-2019 AMC ± 4.2% 2.9% +1.3%
CMCSA 201.1 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 2.9% 4.3% -1.3%
CERN 23.5 B 24-Jul-2019 AMC ± 6.1% 4.8% +1.2%
TSCO 13.5 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 4.7% 3.6% +1.1%
MLNX 6.1 B 24-Jul-2019 AMC ± 3.6% 4.7% -1.1%
MMM 102.3 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 4.0% 5.0% -1.0%
WM 49.8 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 3.8% 2.8% +1.0%
VLO 35.4 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 3.2% 4.2% -0.9%
MAS 11.3 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 6.6% 5.7% +0.9%
NOW 52.5 B 24-Jul-2019 AMC ± 5.8% 6.7% -0.9%
RTN 50.7 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 2.7% 3.5% -0.8%
HSY 30.7 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 3.6% 4.3% -0.7%
IP 17.4 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 3.2% 3.8% -0.5%
STM 16.9 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 8.8% 8.3% +0.5%
BAX 42.7 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 2.9% 3.4% -0.5%
TSLA 45.2 B 24-Jul-2019 AMC ± 7.0% 7.5% -0.5%
KKR 14.3 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 3.9% 3.4% +0.5%
AGNC 9.4 B 24-Jul-2019 AMC ± 1.6% 1.2% +0.4%
AAL 15.0 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 4.4% 4.7% -0.3%
TECK 13.1 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 4.1% 4.4% -0.3%
TMUS 66.8 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 3.3% 3.6% -0.3%
TAL   25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 9.2% 9.0% +0.3%
RCL 23.8 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 5.1% 4.9% +0.2%
NEM 32.5 B 25-Jul-2019 BMO ± 3.1% 2.9% +0.2%
CTXS 13.3 B 24-Jul-2019 AMC ± 3.4% 3.2% +0.2%
PYPL 141.3 B 24-Jul-2019 AMC ± 4.8% 4.7% +0.1%

The implied earnings move is interpolated from the market prices of options that have the nearest term expiration within the earnings date. The implied move is derived using the at-the-money implied volatility and is indicative of the expected magnitude of the stock price movement (which can be in either direction). For example, a 10% implied earnings move means the market expects the stock price to go up or down 10% after earnings. The implied move is compared to the actual absolute average move of the stock price from the previous 4 earnings announcements to determine if the current implied move is overestimating or underestimating the upcoming earnings move. This list only contains stocks that have at least an average daily option volume of 1000.

 

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