Earnings season has a way of capturing every trader’s attention. A single company report can spark dramatic price swings, leaving many investors either scrambling to react or watching opportunities pass by. If you’ve ever wondered whether there’s a way to gauge what the market is expecting before the announcement hits, Market Chameleon’s Earnings Implied Move Tool offers exactly that insight.
When you trade through earnings, you aren’t just navigating company fundamentals—you’re also navigating the market’s collective anticipation of volatility. The implied move, derived from option straddle pricing, reflects how large of a price swing traders are preparing for. Importantly, this forecast is about magnitude, not direction. It won’t tell you whether a stock will rise or fall, but it does quantify the size of the move options traders believe is likely.
Think of it like a point spread in sports betting. The spread doesn’t predict the winner, but it signals how close or lopsided the game is expected to be. In the same way, an implied move tells you how much the market thinks a stock could shift once earnings are released.
Market Chameleon’s tool takes the implied move number and places it into its proper historical context. This step transforms a raw percentage into actionable insight. By benchmarking the current implied move against the stock’s history, you can quickly assess whether today’s market expectations are extreme, muted, or typical.
For example, you can compare:
Historical Average – the typical implied move across past earnings cycles.
High / Low Range – the most extreme expectations ever priced in.
Median – the midpoint that splits all prior observations in half.
Percentile Rank – a quick snapshot of how today’s number stacks up within its entire history.
In the webinar, FedEx (FDX) was used to demonstrate the tool’s power. Ahead of its earnings announcement, options markets priced in an 8.2% implied move. At first glance, that might feel like a big number. But how do you know if it’s unusual?
By comparing against history, the picture becomes clearer:
Long-term average implied move: 5.5%
Median implied move: 5.1%
Average over the last four years: 7.0%
Placed into context, the current 8.2% expectation ranks in the 94th percentile of all past observations. That means the market is bracing for a move bigger than what has occurred in nearly every past earnings cycle.
By using the Earnings Implied Move Tool, you can:
Measure the market’s expectation of volatility around earnings.
Avoid relying on guesswork by grounding your analysis in historical data.
Gain perspective on whether current pricing reflects an extreme event or business as usual.
It’s not about predicting the outcome. It’s about equipping yourself with better information so you can evaluate risk, uncover opportunities, and make decisions with more confidence.
?? Explore the tool here:
https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/FDX/Earnings/Historical-Earnings-Price-Movement-Statistics/
Financial Disclosure
Market Chameleon is not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Always perform your own due diligence or consult a qualified financial professional before making trading decisions.