SHOP Bullish Call Spread at $3.55 Appears to be a Good Buy

29 March 2023, 11:26 AM

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By Dmitry Pargamanik

How this SHOP Bull Call Spread Works

The bottom of the SHOP trade card shows us that we would buy one call and sell another with the same 28-Apr-23 expiration (this is a bull call spread as indicated on the top of the card).

Buy: 28-Apr-23 40 CALL

Sell: 28-Apr-23 45 CALL

Reasons to Like This Trade

  • You can buy this spread for $3.55 when theoretically it’s worth $3.90. Simply put, the market is implying a theoretical edge of 10.0%.
  • Your maximum gain is $1.45, which means you can make an astounding 40.8% return on your investment in 22 trading days! (That's if the stock closes at 45 or above. $1.45 / $3.55 = 40.8%) At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at 45.75.
  • The stock only needs to close at, or above, 45.00 after 22 trading days for you to realize this maximum return. Since the stock is already above your ideal price of 45.00, you have a cushion in the strategy. The stock can decline by -4.8% and you'll still break even. If the stock stays here or goes higher you will make your max gain.
  • 5 out of 7 indicators are pointing to a bullish sentiment in the stock, which is enough to believe there is a decent chance the stock price could hit its mark of 45.00. Look, nobody knows for sure if the stock is going to go up or down, but, if you had to handicap the stock price, these metrics are indicating that SHOP is really riding the momentum of bullish signals.
    Metric Signal Bull or Bear
    Relative Performance 1-yr Underperform Bearish
    Relative Performance 3-Mon Outperform Bullish SHOP Bullish Relative Performance 3 Month
    Relative Performance 2-Wk Outperform Bullish SHOP Bullish Relative Performance 2 Week
    Seasonality Strong Bullish SHOP Bullish Seasonality
    Technical Bearish
    Historical Price Action 61% Uptrend Bullish SHOP Bullish Historical Price Action
    Option Order Flow Sentiment Positive Net Option Delta Bullish SHOP Bullish Option Order Flow Sentiment

Conclusion

This trade in SHOP looks like a good opportunity because:

  1. 5 out of 7 bullish indicators support positive momentum
  2. 40.8% potential return on your investment
  3. Theoretical edge of 10.0%
  4. The stock price is already at the price point for you to make your max gain and can even go down by -4.8% and you'll still break even!

Don't Let an Opportunity Pass You By!


How to Find More SHOP Bull Call Spread Strategies

How you can find bull call spread trade ideas for other stocks


And if you want to find more bull call spreads for other stocks, go to the bull call spread screener


Relative Performance

SHOP stock has underperformed the market in the last year with a return of -34.7%, while SPY returned -11.0%. This shows that you would have done better investing in the overall market (through SPY) over the last year than in SHOP shares. However, SHOP has outperformed the market in the last 3 month and 2 week periods, returning +40.4% and +4.6%, while SPY returned +6.4% and +2.3%, respectively. This indicates SHOP has been having a stronger performance recently.

Learn about a stocks relative strength


Seasonality: Strong

The strategy involves holding the position from Mar 29 to Apr 28 expiration. Historically, this has been a strong seasonal period. In the past 12 years, SHOP shares have increased 60% of the time between Mar 29 to Apr 28, while averaging a return of +6.1%. Learn how to look up stock seasonality.

Technical:

None

Historical Price Action: 61% Uptrend

In the last 4 years, there were 23 historical samples of SHOP stock price movements over the same time period as this option spread. The stock moved up 61% of the time for an average return of +11.5%.

How to generate statistics on a stocks historical price return distribution

Option Order Flow Sentiment: Positive Net Option Delta

At the time of this SHOP trade idea, bullish option order flow exceeded bearish option order flow. The net option delta volume was 84 K.

Learn more about option delta volume.

Find out the latest sentiment from the options market for SHOP

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NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.


The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.