MSTR Call Spread Buyers See 10% Gain as Stock Rises $5.21—Are Bullish Skew Signals and Multi-Million Dollar Bets Pointing to a Rebound?
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High-Volume MSTR Call Spread Yields Quick 10% Gain
On September 5, 2025, MicroStrategy (MSTR) options drew attention with a large call spread transaction that hints at aggressive positioning for near-term upside. The trade involved a massive 20,000-contract call spread on the 345-375 strikes, expiring in just 7 days. Bought at an average price of $3.99 and marking a volume-weighted average gain of 10% by midday, the strategy quickly benefitted from a $5.21 rise in MSTR’s share price—from $325.19 at trade inception to $330.40 by 12:30 PM.
Trade Breakdown: $4M Risked for $26M Upside Potential
This table details the trade’s structure and rapid profitability:
| Expiration | Strike Range | Contracts | Days to Exp. | VWAP Trade Price | VWAP Bid | VWAP Ask | Ref. Stock Price | Profit/Loss | Percent Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2025 | 345/375 Call Spread | 20,000 | 7 | $3.99 | $3.77 | $4.24 | $325.19 | $0.40 | 10.0% |
In dollar terms, buyers staked more than $4 million on this trade, targeting a potential profit approaching $26 million—should MSTR finish above $375 at expiry. See the multi-leg trade analyzer for more details and similar trade setups.
Technical Indicators Are Cautious: Recent Performance Mixed
MSTR shares closed at $330.40 after a 0.86% gain, marking a $2.81 price increase. The stock opened 2.2% higher but faded 1.3% intraday from the open. Notably, MSTR has surged +190.6% from its 52-week low but remains -39.2% off its 52-week high. Technical moving average trends point to near-term caution:
- Price is -7.9% below its 20-day moving average
- -14.8% below its 50-day moving average
- +1.6% above its 250-day moving average
- The moving average indicator is showing a Bearish Crossover
Stock Performance Versus SPY: Longer-Term Outperformance, Short-Term Weakness
Despite underperforming the SPY ETF recently, MSTR has significantly outpaced it over the past year and longer. Here’s a clear comparison of key timeframes:
| Duration | MSTR Return | SPY Return | MSTR Low | MSTR High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | +0.9% | -0.5% | 320.00 | 335.78 |
| 2 Week | -2.1% | +1.6% | 317.75 | 359.53 |
| 1 Month | -15.1% | +2.3% | 317.75 | 414.36 |
| 3 Month | -12.6% | +8.7% | 317.75 | 457.22 |
| 6 Month | +20.2% | +12.6% | 231.51 | 457.22 |
| 1 Year | +164.8% | +18.5% | 113.69 | 543.00 |
| YTD | +14.2% | +10.8% | 231.51 | 457.22 |
| 3 Year | +1416.1% | +69.9% | 13.26 | 543.00 |
| 5 Year | +2225.0% | +97.9% | 13.26 | 543.00 |
Option Skew Indicator Signals Bullish Market Posture
The 30-day implied volatility skew—at the 78th percentile for the past 52 weeks—indicates that options markets are leaning bullish despite short-term technical headwinds. The proprietary skew indicator reflects how options pricing projects sentiment; a high rank like this is typically associated with expectations for upside volatility or positive news flow.
Key Takeaway: Multi-Million Dollar Bets Amid Mixed Technicals
This surge in call spread activity—coupled with bullish option skew but short-term technical caution—shows traders are willing to risk significant capital for large payoffs if MSTR rebounds in the coming week. Whether the options market is early in predicting a reversal or simply taking a high-stakes swing is an open question. Either way, such outsized bets signal potential for elevated volatility and sharp price moves into expiration.
To track more call spreads or multi-leg options trades in real time, check the multi-leg trade screener.
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NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
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