Click to view the earnings moves in AXP
AXP Jumps After Earnings—But What Does History Say?
American Express (AXP) is turning heads today after its latest earnings report, with shares recently up 3.7% at $334.97. The move grabbed traders’ attention, especially with the options market pricing in an expected swing of ±4.0% heading into the report. But as AXP basks in its post-earnings spotlight, investors might be asking: does this kind of rally tend to stick around, or is history warning us of a quick reversal?
A Look at the Numbers: Typical Earnings Day Moves
The company’s earnings surprise is just the tip of the iceberg. To really understand the risk and opportunity, it’s worth digging into AXP’s track record on and after earnings days. Here’s a quick snapshot of AXP’s average price action based on the last 12 earnings announcements:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.6% | -0.5% | +2.5% | -1.8% | +1.0% |
| % of Moves Up | 33.3% | 41.7% | 58.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 66.7% | 58.3% | 41.7% |
So, what’s the takeaway? On average, AXP does manage to notch a modest gain of +0.6% on earnings day. But that masks a critical detail: in two-thirds of recent reports, the immediate move was to the downside. There’s a history of a weak open (average gap down of -0.5%) but a tendency for shares to rally into the close, with a +1.0% average from open to close and nearly 60% odds of finishing higher than the open. It’s a mixed but nuanced picture for bulls and bears alike.
How Big Are the Swings? Magnitude Matters
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
| Max Absolute Return | 10.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 5.6% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
The absolute average move on earnings day is right in line with this quarter’s options market prediction of ±4.0%. That means today’s jump is fairly typical by historical standards—though max moves can reach double digits, while the smallest reactions are under 1%.
What Happens Next? Post-Earnings Price Action
Looking beyond the initial reaction, how does AXP perform in the days and weeks following earnings?
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.6% | +0.2% | -0.1% | +0.6% | +0.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 45.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% | 36.4% |
| % of Moves Down | 54.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% | 63.6% |
The aftermath is a tug-of-war. The stock sees slightly better-than-even odds of gaining two days or one week out, but the average moves are small—barely breaking out of neutral. Historically, the bounce doesn’t guarantee follow-through; two weeks later, AXP is more likely to drift lower than higher.
The Bottom Line: What’s Next for AXP?
Today’s move is strong, but history tells us to be cautious about assuming momentum will automatically carry forward. Options markets had priced in a 4.0% swing, and AXP’s actual performance sits right at that average mark. For investors, the most interesting takeaway is that even after a big report, the path forward is anything but predictable—and both swift rallies and rapid reversals are firmly within AXP’s earnings playbook.
Want to dig deeper? See the full stats and more historical context on the AXP historical earnings performance page.
Contact Information:
If you have feedback or concerns about the content, please feel free to reach out to us via email at support@marketchameleon.com.
About the Publisher - Marketchameleon.com:
Marketchameleon is a comprehensive financial research and analysis website specializing in stock and options markets. We leverage extensive data, models, and analytics to provide valuable insights into these markets. Our primary goal is to assist traders in identifying potential market developments and assessing potential risks and rewards.
NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.
Disclosure: This article was generated with the assistance of AI