Click to view the earnings moves in JPM
JPM Reports—So How Does the Stock Usually React?
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) dropped -1.0% after releasing its Q4 and full-year 2025 results today, coming in lower than the market’s already-muted expectations for a ±3.6% move. But if you’re wondering, “What’s typical on JPM earnings days? Is this move normal or a signal of something bigger?”—you’re not alone.
Let’s dig into how JPM stock has historically performed around earnings and whether today’s trading fits the longer-term story. For deeper stats, check out the full JPM earnings season history here.
Historical Patterns: What Happens to JPM on Earnings Day?
Over the last 12 quarters, JPM stock has averaged a 0.0% return on earnings day, with exactly 50.0% of events producing a gain and 50.0% resulting in a drop—a true coin-flip scenario. While the initial gap moves at the open are usually flat (0.0% on average), the drama can unfold after the opening bell. There’s often a +1.8% pop from open to the high, but downside moves to the low average -1.4%. The drift from open to close nets out at 0.0%—so while intraday swings happen, the closing price isn’t usually too far from where things began.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | 0.0% | 0.0% | +1.8% | -1.4% | 0.0% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 41.7% | 41.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 58.3% | 58.3% |
How Big Are the Earnings Moves? What’s Normal?
The options market was expecting a bigger swing (±3.6%) today than JPM’s usual earnings-day action. Historically, the average absolute move (regardless of direction) is 2.0%—while the max move in the last three years clocked in at 6.5% and the smallest at 0.5%. Intraday, wild swings of 5.4% from open to high or 4.0% from open to low have sometimes occurred, but most days are calmer, with a typical open-to-close change of just 1.7%.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| Max Absolute Return | 6.5% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
After the Earnings Dust Settles: Does JPM Tend to Rally?
If you look beyond the initial volatility, JPM has shown a tendency to drift higher after earnings—especially one and two weeks after results. The average one-week gain is +1.0%, with nearly three-fourths (72.7%) of those weeks ending positive. Stretch it out to two weeks, and the average return jumps to +2.0% with a strong 81.8% hit rate for gains. If you only look at the next few days after earnings, though, performance is a toss-up.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.7% | +1.0% | +2.0% |
| % of Moves Up | 54.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 72.7% | 81.8% |
| % of Moves Down | 45.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 27.3% | 18.2% |
What Does It All Mean for Traders and Investors?
JPM’s earnings day volatility was below what the options market expected, which often signals muted investor reaction—or room for a surprise reversal. Historically, the stock doesn’t make outsized moves on earnings day itself, but often trends higher in the weeks that follow. Still, given today’s result was outpaced by options market pricing and came with 14,276 options contracts traded, traders should watch closely for any post-earnings drift.
If you’re looking for patterns in how blue chips react to earnings, JPM’s steady post-earnings uptick may be one worth noting. For more detailed historical moves, check out the JPM earnings movement statistics here for deeper research.
Contact Information:
If you have feedback or concerns about the content, please feel free to reach out to us via email at support@marketchameleon.com.
About the Publisher - Marketchameleon.com:
Marketchameleon is a comprehensive financial research and analysis website specializing in stock and options markets. We leverage extensive data, models, and analytics to provide valuable insights into these markets. Our primary goal is to assist traders in identifying potential market developments and assessing potential risks and rewards.
NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.
Disclosure: This article was generated with the assistance of AI