USO Call Spread Sees Over 4,000 Contracts Traded—Option Skew Hits 100% Bullish Rank Amid 7.90% Surge
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Heavy Demand for USO Calls as Stock Surges Nearly 8%
A single high-volume call spread in United States Oil Fund (USO) options executed on March 3, 2026, is worth a closer look—not just for its size but for what it could signal about market sentiment. The trade stood out as more than 4,000 contracts changed hands, coinciding with a 7.90% jump in USO’s stock price. Let’s break down the numbers, explore the potential goals behind the strategy, and see how technical and options indicators align.
Key Trade Details: $543K Spent, Potential for $470K Gain
The option trade involved a call spread on the 20-Mar-26 expiration, using the 85 and 90 strike prices. With 4,054 contracts executed at a VWAP of $2.68 per spread, the trade’s total cost exceeded $543,000. By 10:25 a.m., the spread’s value ticked up to $2.75, giving buyers an immediate 2.6% gain as USO’s stock price edged up $0.48 to $94.08.
| Trade Date | Expiration | Strike Prices | Contracts | VWAP Trade | VWAP Bid | VWAP Ask | Stock Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-Mar-2026 09:30:06 | 20-Mar-26 | 85-90 Call Spread | 4,054 | $2.68 | $2.45 | $3.00 | $93.60 |
Buyers Seek Maximum Profit If USO Stays Above $90
For this call spread to reach full profit by expiration, USO must remain above the $90 strike. If so, the maximum payout would be the difference between strikes ($5) minus the cost ($2.68), or $2.32 per contract—a total potential net gain of about $470,000 for the group of buyers.
The table below shows the profit dynamics:
| Total Trade Cost | Potential Max Payout | Net Maximum Gain | Breakeven Stock Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| $543,000 | $940,000 | $470,000 | $87.68 |
Given that USO was trading at $94.08 after the trade—well above the maximum profit threshold—it appears the spread buyers are betting that strength will hold or accelerate into expiration.
Technical Indicators Confirm Uptrend: 19.1% Above 20-day Moving Average
USO’s technical signals reinforce the bullish posture seen in the options activity. The fund’s price is now 19.1% above its 20-day moving average, 26.4% above its 50-day average, and 29.6% over its 250-day benchmark. With a 7.90% surge today, USO is outperforming both short- and long-term averages, breaking above its expected daily resistance of $89.24—and staying well clear of recent support levels.
| Current Price | Change | % Above 20DMA | % Above 50DMA | % Above 250DMA | 52-Week High | 52-Week Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $94.08 | +6.89 (+7.90%) | 19.1% | 26.4% | 29.6% | $87.19 | $62.37 |
USO Continues to Outperform SPY Across Timeframes
The table below showcases USO’s impressive price momentum compared to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) over different timeframes. USO’s performance stands out with returns beating SPY in nearly every period—from daily to multi-year horizons.
| Duration | USO Return | SPY Return | USO Low | USO High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | +7.8% | -2.4% | 93.02 | 94.37 |
| 2 Week | +23.4% | -1.7% | 75.18 | 94.37 |
| 1 Month | +24.8% | -3.7% | 75.18 | 94.37 |
| 3 Month | +34.0% | -1.4% | 65.99 | 94.37 |
| 6 Month | +22.5% | +5.2% | 65.99 | 94.37 |
| 1 Year | +25.0% | +14.0% | 60.67 | 94.37 |
| YTD | +36.0% | -1.8% | 67.35 | 94.37 |
| 3 Year | +37.7% | +73.7% | 57.83 | 94.37 |
| 5 Year | +134.7% | +81.8% | 39.27 | 94.37 |
In the last year, USO has risen by 25% compared to SPY’s 14%, and over the past month, USO’s 24.8% advance starkly contrasts with a 3.7% slide in the SPY ETF.
Option Skew at 100% Bullish: Market Implied Volatility Signals Positive Outlook
The Market Chameleon Option Skew Indicator registers a 100% bullish rank—its highest level in the last 52 weeks. This proprietary measure looks at 30-day implied volatility skew, and such an elevated reading suggests that participants are as positive on USO as they've been all year. When option pricing leans strongly to the call side, it typically reflects confidence in upside movement or hedging against unexpected rallies.
Takeaway: Tracking Opportunity and Bullish Posture
While there’s never certainty in these trades, the strategic call spread seen today fits hand-in-glove with technical signals and options sentiment, painting a clearly bullish picture for USO within the near-term. With both technicals and option market behavior pointing up, this trade may serve as a strong indicator for traders considering their own approach to oil-related assets.
For those interested in finding more multi-leg option trades like this call spread, check the Multi-Leg Option Trades Screener for further analysis and potential opportunities.
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