Click to view the earnings moves in RPM
RPM Delivers a Historic Pop After Record Q3—Is This Move an Outlier?
Something big just happened with RPM International (RPM): after announcing record fiscal Q3 results, the stock jumped +12.4%, a move nearly double what the options market was expecting (±6.5%). That’s not just a beat on sales and earnings—it’s a major break from historical patterns.
What Drove Today’s Surge?
RPM’s financial update was packed with positive news:
- Record sales: $1.61 billion, up 8.9% from last year
- Adjusted diluted EPS: $0.57, up a staggering 62.9%
- Adjusted EBIT: $116.4 million, up 48.8%
- Growth was driven by strong demand for high-performance building products across geographies, acquisitions, and even operational improvements (MAP initiatives)
RPM also reaffirmed guidance for continued growth in Q4, cooling some of the uncertainty that’s weighed on industrials lately. For details, see today’s full release or check out RPM’s historical earnings move statistics here.
How Does Today’s Move Compare to History?
If you look back at RPM’s last 12 earnings reports, today’s +12.4% pop stands out as one of the biggest reactions on record—and far larger than usual.
Here’s a look at average one-day stock returns for RPM around earnings day:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +3.0% | +2.4% | +3.6% | -2.9% | +0.6% |
| % of Moves Up | 66.7% | 58.3% | 58.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 33.3% | 41.7% | 41.7% |
In other words, the average earnings day return is +3.0%, and days with positive moves outnumber negative 2 to 1. But moves as big as today are rare—the historical maximum absolute return has been 12.3%. RPM’s post-earnings pop just made the record books.
Absolute Earnings Day Moves
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% |
| Max Absolute Return | 12.3% | 14.4% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 9.4% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
What Happens After Earnings?
Cautious about buying the pop? History shows RPM shares have gained an average +1.4% the day after earnings, with the odds on your side—72.7% of the time the stock moves higher. Momentum tends to persist, though gains fade after the first week.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.4% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 72.7% | 54.5% | 63.6% | 63.6% | 45.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 27.3% | 45.5% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 54.5% |
Options Volume Signals High Uncertainty
Options traders were bracing for a big move, but not this big. Today’s expected move (implied by options) was ±6.5%, less than half the actual jump. Total options volume hit 274 contracts—one of the busiest days in recent memory for RPM. The single most actively traded contract was the out-of-the-money 17-Apr-26 105 Call—suggesting bullish traders may have been betting (or hedging) for upside.
| Option Contract | 17-Apr-26 105 C |
| Volume | 138 |
| VWAP price | 4.49 |
| Open interest | 178 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.55 |
Investor Takeaway
RPM’s post-earnings surge is one for the company’s history books. While the volatility might cool as reality sets in, the numbers show that big earnings moves for RPM are rare but—when they come—tend to lead to further upside in the near term.
Curious how RPM usually trades around earnings? See the full earnings move history here. With bullish momentum, fresh record results, and continued upbeat guidance, RPM’s next few weeks are definitely worth watching.
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