This TSLA Calendar Call Spread Could Pay 3.8 to 1
Bullish play with a target stock price of $260
Strategy has +378% upside potential and 14% undervalued
Strategy: TSLA Calendar Call Spread | |
Sell 25-Oct-24 260 Call | 6.45 |
Buy 15-Nov-24 260 Call | 9.40 |
Debit: | $2.95 |
Option Profit Calculator Results for TSLA Calendar Spread at 25-Oct-24 Expiration
In this scenario, the optimal stock price for the option strategy would be $260.00 on the date of the first expiration, October 25, 2024. This is equal to the strike price of the options in the spread. Since both TSLA and the market are showing upward pressure, and the strikes are above the current stock price of $216.95, the spread is taking advantage of this bullish momentum. If the stock price is $260.00 at expiration, we can benefit from the 25-Oct-24 call, which we sold, expiring worthless, and the option that we are long, the 15-Nov-24 call, will still have time premium built in.
Since we do now know what the exact implied volatility will be on October 25, we can use our historical data to make an educated estimate to help us calculate the value of the 15-Nov-24 option. Applying the median historical implied volatility of 54.6 from similar options, the theoretical value of the call is 14.10 at the date of the 25-Oct-24 expiration. Using the above assumptions gives us a potential upside of +378% for this calendar spread.
TSLA Calendar Spread Value vs. Market Price
According to Market Chameleon estimated value, TSLA Calendar Spread is trading at a 14% discount to historical benchmark.
If we use historical data to measure how similar spreads in TSLA were priced in the market, the 4-year average price was 3.41, with a high mark of 5.12 and a low of 2.19.
Currently, the calendar call spread is bid at 2.60 and offered at 2.95. The midpoint of the spread is 2.78.
If we use 3.41 as our historical fair value benchmark, the current market ask price is at a 14% discount, while the current market midpoint represents a 19% discount.
Current Price | Historical Values of Similar Spreads | ||||
Bid | Ask | Midpoint | Average | High | Low |
2.60 | 2.95 | 2.78 | 3.41 | 5.12 | 2.19 |
Takeaway
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