Click to view the earnings moves in YRD
Why Did Yiren Digital Shares Drop 8.2% After Earnings—and What Usually Happens Next?
Yiren Digital (YRD) unveiled its Q1 2025 earnings this morning, and the immediate market reaction was sharp—a slide of -8.2%. The move drew even more attention because options markets were expecting a swing of ±12.0%, putting today’s action on the higher end of YRD's recent volatility but not an outlier. With a modest options volume of 170 contracts traded, most eyes are now on whether this negative move signals more downside or a contrarian buying opportunity, given YRD's earnings-day history.
Historical Earnings Moves: Does Today Fit the Pattern?
To understand whether today’s drop is unusual, let’s look at Yiren Digital’s typical behavior on earnings days. Over the last 12 quarters, YRD’s average earnings day return is just -0.2%, but the numbers hide a wide range of volatility. In fact, 58.3% of earnings days ended positive, and the open-to-close return was even a slight gain of +0.3%. This suggests that while YRD can be a roller coaster, outright crashes are less common than it may seem.
Want the complete historical stats? View YRD’s full earnings move history here.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.2% | -0.6% | +6.2% | -6.2% | +0.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 58.3% | 75.0% | 58.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 41.7% | 25.0% | 41.7% |
How Wild Is YRD’s Earnings-Day Volatility?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 8.1% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% |
| Max Absolute Return | 20.4% | 12.9% | 15.9% | 21.5% | 18.9% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
On average, the magnitude of YRD’s move on earnings is around 8.1%—not far from what happened today. And single-day swings over 20% have occurred before, underscoring that wild price action isn’t out of character.
What About the Days After? A History of Rebounds—or Deeper Slides?
If you’re eyeing a possible bounce after today’s selloff, history offers mixed clues. In the three days following earnings, Yiren Digital’s average return has been -5.5%, with nearly two-thirds of outcomes negative. The lone bright spot: Two weeks after earnings, average returns creep up to +1.6%—though this comes with only a 45.5% win rate. In short, big drops don’t guarantee snap-back rallies, and weakness often persists for several sessions.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | 0.0% | -4.2% | -5.5% | -4.2% | +1.6% |
| % of Moves Up | 54.5% | 45.5% | 36.4% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 45.5% | 54.5% | 63.6% | 45.5% | 54.5% |
Today’s Option Hotspot: A Big Bet on Further Declines?
Despite the low overall volume, today’s most actively traded option contract was a long-dated June 2025 $7.5 put—often used by traders hedging for more downside or speculating that volatility is here to stay.
| Option Contract | 20-Jun-25 7.5 P |
|---|---|
| Volume | 54 |
| VWAP price | 0.94 |
| Open interest | 308 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.45 |
What’s Behind the Move? Key Earnings Highlights
- Q1 net revenue rose 13% year-over-year to RMB1,554.5M (US$214.2M)
- Loan facilitation volume was strong, but net income halved due to upfront provisions and slower insurance and lifestyle segments
- Strategic shift: focus on repeat borrowers and technology transformation
- New CFO announced, plus a fresh share incentive plan for long-term alignment
- Delinquency rates steady and manageable
Bottom Line: A Volatile History, But Direction Remains Uncertain
For Yiren Digital, wild earnings day swings are business as usual, but sustained recoveries after big drops are less common—at least in the first week. With options markets bracing for volatility and fresh bets being placed, all eyes now turn to whether the Q1 financials mark a short-term capitulation or the beginning of a more drawn-out downturn. The stats suggest caution: past weakness has lingered before. Still, as always in fast-moving names, surprises happen—and savvy investors may want to keep YRD’s historical playbook handy for the next round.
Curious to see more? See detailed YRD historical earnings moves here.
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