Why this MCD Bear Call Spread Makes Sense for $1.11 Credit

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This MCD Credit Call Spread Aims for 80% ROI in 5 Days

Bearish play with a target stock price of $262.50 or below

Strategy has +80% upside potential and 3% overvalued

Buy265 Call
Sell262.5 Call

McDonalds is weaker by -1.0% today to $262.83. The above option strategy is a bearish play that shows a theoretical 62% win rate, based on MCD's historical stock price behavior.

Option Profit Calculator for MCD Call Spread at 06-Oct-23 Expiration

If MCD stock price at expiration is at or below $262.50, this spread has a 80% upside potential

The optimal stock price for this option strategy is to close at or below $262.50 on the expiration date, October 6, 2023. In that scenario, both calls would expire worthless, allowing you to keep the entire $1.11 you received when selling the spread. That corresponds to a potential +80% return on the amount at risk with 5 days left until expiration.

The maximum gain will be realized if the stock price is at or below 262.50. The maximum gain is $1.11

The breakeven point is at 263.61, which is 0.4% above the current spot price.

The maximum loss will occur when the stock price is at or above 265. The max loss is $1.39.

MCD Spread Current Market Price vs. Historical Average

MCD Call Spread is trading at a 3% premium to historical average.

Using historical data to measure how a similar spread in MCD was priced in the market, the 4-year average value was 1.07, with a high mark of 1.26 and a low of 0.90.

Currently, this vertical call spread is bid at 1.11 and offered at 1.22. The midpoint of the spread is 1.17.

If we use 1.07 as our historical fair value benchmark, the current market bid price is at a 3% premium, while the current market midpoint represents a 9% premium.

Current PriceHistorical Values of Similar Spreads
Market Chameleon captures daily records of market data to calculate historical benchmarks and generate estimated values.


The MCD call spread we've identified here can be a good way to play a bearish outlook because the option strategy has a +80% upside potential, is 3% overpriced relative to historical measures, and will benefit from a stock price at or below $262.50.

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NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated And may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices And were Not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.

The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.