Click to view the earnings moves in CMC
Can CMC Keep Up Its Upside Surprise Streak on Earnings Day?
If you were hoping for fireworks after Commercial Metals Company (CMC) announced its latest results, today's modest +0.2% stock move might seem anticlimactic. Yet beneath the surface, historical data tells a different—and far more interesting—story about how CMC typically behaves on earnings day.
Market Expectations vs. Today's Move: A Tamer-than-Expected Reaction
Heading into today's results, the options market was primed for action, pricing in an anticipated move of ±10.2% in either direction. The reality? CMC closed up just 0.2%, barely a ripple compared to expectations and the previous earnings' move of 1.1%. For perspective, today's option volume came in at 449 contracts—a figure in line with average activity for this stock.
What History Says: CMC's Track Record on Earnings Day
To get a clearer picture, let’s dig into the numbers: Over the last 12 earnings announcements, CMC stock has tended to surprise to the upside more often than not. Here's what the data shows:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +2.8% | -0.1% | +4.9% | -1.8% | +3.0% |
| % of Moves Up | 75.0% | 58.3% | 75.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 16.7% | 41.7% | 25.0% |
What stands out? The stock moved up on earnings day 75% of the time, and when it ran, the average move from open to high was nearly +5%. This means that while the opening reaction might be subdued, CMC has a historical tendency to drift higher through the trading session after its report. Want to see the data for yourself? Check out CMC's full earnings-day stock movement history here.
Magnitude Matters: Typical and Extreme Moves Summed Up
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 4.5% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 3.8% |
| Max Absolute Return | 9.6% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 8.9% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
Put simply, options traders might not be wrong to anticipate larger moves in CMC—even if today wasn’t one of those outsized events. Big swings happen: CMC’s biggest single-day earnings move hit 9.6% in the last three years, while the smallest move was 0%.
What Happens After Earnings Day?
If you're hoping for a post-earnings rally, CMC's record suggests the initial pop often doesn't have much follow-through. Historically, the day after earnings, the average return is -0.5% with less than a third (27.3%) of post-earnings sessions moving higher. Two weeks out, average performance trends slightly negative, at -0.9%.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.5% | +0.4% | -0.1% | +0.3% | -0.9% |
| % of Moves Up | 27.3% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 72.7% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% |
Today's Hot Option: 18-Jul-25 50 Call
Amid the post-earnings trading, the most actively traded single-leg option was the July 2025 $50 call. Here's a snapshot for traders interested in the action (and, if you want to test out scenarios, click through to see how it might play out in the options calculator):
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 18-Jul-25 50 C |
| Volume | 87 |
| VWAP price | 1.40 |
| Open interest | 211 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 1.88 |
The Bottom Line for Traders and Investors
CMC may not have delivered a dramatic move today, but its earnings-day track record is worth noting: this is a stock with a clear upside tilt on report days, even as longer-term post-earnings momentum tends to fade. Whether you’re playing earnings through options or just looking to spot patterns, make sure to check the full historical earnings-day data before making your next move: CMC historical stock performance on earnings page.
As always, past performance is not a guarantee of future results—but when it comes to CMC, knowing the history can make you the smartest person in the (trading) room.
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