Click to view the earnings moves in EC
EC Earnings Are Out—But Will the Stock Follow Its Historical Playbook?
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) just announced second quarter results, and if you're hoping for fireworks, today's move (+2.1%) might seem underwhelming given how the stock typically behaves on earnings day. With option traders bracing for a ±2.5% swing and the latest earnings move only just over 2%, is EC about to break from tradition—or are we simply waiting for the real action?
A Quick Glance: Today’s Stats and Options Buzz
As of today, EC traded up 2.1%, landing at $8.73—nearly matching what options markets had priced in for a typical earnings reaction. Today's total options volume was a modest 80 contracts, but the spotlight was clearly on a specific put: the 21-Nov-25 7.5 P, trading 35 times, with a VWAP of $0.16, and hefty open interest of 1,423. It's the sort of activity that could suggest either speculative hedging or outright bearish bets—even as the stock sits above the strike price.
| Option Contract | 21-Nov-25 7.5 P |
|---|---|
| Volume | 35 |
| VWAP price | 0.16 |
| Open interest | 1,423 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 1.23 |
How Does EC Stock Normally React to Earnings?
Looking back at 12 prior quarters, EC stock has rarely stayed quiet on earnings days—yet its direction hasn’t been predictable. The average move is slightly negative, and downside action (from open to close) occurs twice as often as rallies. But here’s the twist: post-earnings, the odds of a gain dramatically improve. Here’s what the numbers show:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.1% | +0.5% | +1.8% | -2.5% | -0.6% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 50.0% | 33.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 41.7% | 33.3% | 66.7% |
So, the average earnings-day return is nearly flat at -0.1%, but moves up and down happen with similar frequency. The key detail: from the open to close, the average drift is -0.6%, and 66.7% of the time, EC closes lower than it opened on earnings day—a clear downside bias. Yet, average moves to the high (+1.8%) and to the low (-2.5%) reflect notable volatility intraday. The opening gap (from the previous close to open) skews mildly positive on average, suggesting some optimism early on, but this is often faded by the end of the session.
Curious about more historical stock reactions to EC earnings? Check the full breakdown of EC’s historical stock performance around earnings.
What About the Size of the Moves?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Max Absolute Return | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
The magnitude of the moves can be meaningful. Even when EC’s direction is hard to call, its absolute move (regardless of direction) averages 2.4% on earnings days—with outlier swings over 6% not unheard of. This means even if the stock appears quiet initially, it has a tendency to surprise traders with volatility by the closing bell.
Post-Earnings: History Points to a Bullish Bias
Perhaps the most actionable stat: EC’s performance after the dust settles. Over the last dozen earnings, EC has shown a strong upward drift in the days following earnings—even when the initial reaction is tepid or negative. Take a look:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.0% | +1.6% | +1.9% | +1.9% | +2.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 81.8% | 81.8% | 72.7% | 63.6% | 72.7% |
| % of Moves Down | 18.2% | 18.2% | 27.3% | 36.4% | 27.3% |
The data is clear: in the one, two, and even up to 14 days following earnings, EC shares historically trend higher about two-thirds of the time, with the most consistent upside (over 80%) in the first two days after earnings. This could explain why some options traders might be eyeing bullish post-earnings setups, even if put volume is elevated today.
Takeaway: Keep an Eye on the Next Few Days
While EC's immediate earnings-day reaction may not grab headlines, the history suggests patient traders may find opportunities in the aftermath. Volatility is a regular companion, and the bias has been toward post-earnings rebounds. Given the steady performance and cost controls announced today—and that option traders aren't piling into outsized bets—EC could be quietly setting up for a typical, bullish post-earnings drift.
For a deeper dive, check the full historical performance statistics here: Historical Stock Performance Around EC Earnings.
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