Click to view the earnings moves in CVAC
CureVac's Latest Earnings Drop: Could Past Stock Moves Hint at the Next Big Swing?
Today, CureVac N.V. (CVAC) delivered its second quarter 2025 financial results against the backdrop of big biotech headlines. Not only did the company reaffirm its healthy cash runway, but it also unveiled the game-changing news of an imminent acquisition by BioNTech and an end to lingering patent spats with Pfizer and BioNTech.
While investors chewed on these updates, CVAC shares recently changed hands at $5.52—up a modest 0.4%—but it’s the options market and historical earnings behavior that may offer the most actionable insights right now. If you’re hunting for patterns or hidden risks, the story told by CVAC’s past earnings moves is especially revealing.
Historical Earnings Day Moves: Volatile But No Consistent Bias
Across the last 12 earnings cycles, CVAC has delivered something of a coin toss on earnings day. The average move at the open: -0.4%, while the average total earnings day move sits at -0.5%. In other words, shares have typically wobbled slightly lower—but the historical returns split evenly: 50% positive, 50% negative. From the opening bell to the closing price, the average drift was -0.2%, again showing no clear post-earnings momentum up or down.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.5% | -0.4% | +4.1% | -4.9% | -0.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 41.7% | 50.0% |
It’s worth noting the tug-of-war that often plays out during earnings sessions. The stock’s average run to its day’s high is a sharp +4.1%, but it’s more likely to see a swing down to -4.9% from the open, reflecting both potential for upside pops and the risk of sharp fades.
How Wild Are the Swings? The Data in Absolute Terms
If you strip out the direction and look just at the size of the move, CVAC's earnings days average 3.8% in magnitude—no small shakes for a biotech. The maximum observed single-day earnings jump was a massive 10.6%, while even the calmest earnings moves saw the stock trade in a tight 0.2% range.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Max Absolute Return | 10.6% | 5.7% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 9.7% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
After the Bell: Is There a Post-Earnings Drift?
The real test for earnings traders comes in the aftermath. Looking at historical averages, the 1-day return after earnings is a modest -0.3%, slipping further to -0.5% on day two, before bouncing slightly on day three. However, it’s the two-week average that jumps out: a striking +8.1%, with the majority (63.6%) of two-week periods finishing in the green after earnings—hinting at a potential delayed reaction for opportunistic bulls.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.3% | -0.5% | +0.1% | -0.7% | +8.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 45.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 54.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 36.4% |
Want to explore the full set of historical price reactions to earnings? Check out the CVAC earnings stock performance stats page for more details.
What’s Driving CVAC Today? Major Catalysts & Option Signals
This earnings round is anything but typical: the acquisition news, patent settlements, and multiple clinical pipeline updates make today’s action harder to call. Option traders weren’t bracing for fireworks—the market was pricing in just a ±1.9% move, which looks tame given CVAC’s history of wild swings around earnings.
As for the options market’s most active single-leg trade? That would be a 16-Jan-26 5 Call, and here’s the trade at a glance:
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 16-Jan-26 5 C |
| Volume | 1 |
| VWAP price | 0.83 |
| Open interest | 155 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 1.08 |
With today’s call volume light and a relatively narrow expected move, it seems many traders may be on the sidelines, awaiting clarity on the buyout path or further clinical updates.
The Takeaway
For traders, the biggest risk may be underestimating just how reactive CVAC’s stock can be, especially when market expectations for movement look muted compared to history. While historical earnings have been close to a 50/50 proposition for an immediate move, the longer-term drift has favored significant gains in some post-earnings periods. The BioNTech acquisition, clinical trial milestones, and patent settlements could reshape this pattern—so if you're tracking the action, keep one eye on history and the other on these new catalysts.
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