Click to view the earnings moves in RSKD
RSKD Plunges After Earnings: An Outlier Move Compared to History?
Shares of Riskified Ltd. Class A (NYSE:RSKD) tumbled -13.7% today after releasing its second-quarter results and guidance update. This outsized drop stood in stark contrast to the company’s typical historical moves on earnings day—raising questions about whether investors might expect more turbulence or a quick recovery in the days ahead.
What’s Driving Today’s Decline?
Despite announcing new merchant wins, stronger FY25 revenue guidance, and ongoing AI-powered innovations, investors reacted with notable skepticism. It’s worth noting, too, that the options market was expecting a large move: implied volatility signaled a ±14.6% swing in either direction for today—almost spot on to the actual price reaction. For reference, the prior quarter’s move was a much tamer +7.9%.
Riskified highlighted solid operational execution, vertical diversification, an aggressive share repurchase plan, and the launch of innovative AI tools in ecommerce fraud. However, today’s result suggests the market may be concerned about margin trends, persistent net losses, or broader sector anxieties that outweighed the company’s progress.
RSKD’s Earnings Day Pattern: What Does History Say?
Historically, RSKD has averaged a +3.9% gain on earnings days across the last 12 quarters, with two-thirds of reports seeing the stock finish higher. Even more striking, the stock has displayed a tendency to climb after the opening bell—suggesting that intraday traders often find opportunity once initial nerves settle.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +3.9% | +1.7% | +8.2% | -5.5% | +2.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 66.7% | 58.3% | 58.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 33.3% | 41.7% | 41.7% |
Over the past three years, RSKD typically:
- Finished higher two-thirds of the time on earnings days.
- Saw a strong average surge to the high of the day (+8.2%), and a moderate drift from open to close (+2.2%).
- But today’s -13.7% drop was far outside the historical average move, highlighting a notable break from trend.
See the full historical earnings move data here.
How Big Is a Big Move for RSKD on Earnings?
On average, the magnitude of the stock’s reaction (regardless of direction) clocks in at 12.1%, with historical single-day moves as wild as 24.9%. That places today’s drop at the upper end of typical volatility.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 12.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 9.0% |
| Max Absolute Return | 24.9% | 15.9% | 18.3% | 16.5% | 16.4% |
| Min Absolute Return | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
Post-Earnings Price Drift: Any Hope for a Quick Bounce?
The real story for active traders may be what comes next. RSKD’s track record after earnings shows a subtle bias toward drifting lower, with average losses in the days that follow the report:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.3% | -1.7% | -1.9% | -1.5% | -0.9% |
| % of Moves Up | 54.5% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 45.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 45.5% | 63.6% | 63.6% | 63.6% | 54.5% |
This means RSKD more often continues to drift lower, with a greater probability of downside (up to 63.6%) in the days following earnings. A classic "post-earnings drift" effect seems in play here, with traders possibly adjusting to new information and guidance more slowly than on day one.
Today’s Most Active Option Trade: What Stood Out?
For those watching the options pit, today’s standout contract was the September 2025 $5 Call, attracting notable activity despite the share price sinking below its strike. Here are the key details:
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 19-Sep-25 5 C |
| Volume | 85 |
| VWAP price | 0.20 |
| Open interest | 231 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.55 |
This call saw meaningful volume in a tough session—could some traders be betting on a longer-term recovery, or was it a defensive play? With the option’s price dropping more than 60% on the day, bulls and bargain-hunters may see potential if RSKD bounces in future quarters.
The Takeaway: Breaking the Pattern?
Today’s earnings drop was outside RSKD’s typical script, marking one of the biggest negative surprises since going public. The key question: Will the stock’s usual pattern of a post-earnings drift continue, or will this sharp decline set the stage for an eventual reversal as the company executes its strategy?
Investors and traders can dig deeper into Riskified’s earnings day statistics on this dedicated page.
As always, history can inform—but never guarantees—the future. RSKD’s story just got a new chapter, and the coming sessions will show if past patterns are meant to be broken.
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