Click to view the earnings moves in GFI
Will Gold Fields’ (GFI) Earnings Day Shake Up the Usual Pattern?
Gold Fields Limited American Depositary Shares (GFI) just dropped its latest earnings, and traders were clearly on edge. Heading into the announcement, the options market priced in a move of ±11.2%—a major swing that far overshadows GFI’s latest actual price change of just +0.6% to $30.44. But is this big expectation warranted based on history?
Historically, It’s Mostly Red on GFI Earnings Days
History hasn’t been kind to GFI bulls around earnings. Over the past 12 quarters, the average stock move on the day of earnings is -4.5%, with a striking 83.3% of earnings days closing in the red. Initial gap moves (from previous close to the opening price) average -4.4%, and downside outnumbers upside five-to-one on the day. The stock does occasionally rally, but just 16.7% of earnings moves have been positive. Curious how this compares to other quarters or want to dig deeper? See full GFI earnings move history here.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -4.5% | -4.4% | +1.6% | -2.0% | -0.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 16.7% | 16.7% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 83.3% | 83.3% | 50.0% |
If you’re interested in the typical size of the move (regardless of direction), here’s a quick glance at the absolute average, max, and min historical price shifts:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 5.1% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Max Absolute Return | 10.3% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Min Absolute Return | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
Post-Earnings Moves: Can GFI Bounce Back?
Surprisingly, while the initial reaction tends to be negative, GFI often shows a bit of life in the days following earnings. One, two, and three days after earnings, the average returns flip positive: +1.4%, +1.4%, and +3.3% respectively. Even more interesting: after one or two weeks, GFI posts an average gain of over +9%!
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.4% | +1.4% | +3.3% | +9.3% | +9.7% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Option Market Activity: Spotlight on the 19-Sep-25 22 Puts
Traders zeroed in on the 19-Sep-25 22 Put contract, which saw the most volume today. This could be hedging, a directional bet, or simply a value play—but the activity stands out regardless. Here are the key stats on this contract:
| Option Contract | 19-Sep-25 22 P |
| Volume | 173 |
| VWAP price | 0.05 |
| Open interest | 1,857 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 7.95 |
Key Takeaways: Is the Trend Set to Break?
The pattern is clear: GFI typically sees pressure on earnings day, but rebounds aren’t uncommon in the weeks that follow. Will this quarter buck the trend—or does the options market’s hefty implied move hint that something bigger is brewing? For a closer look at all GFI historical earnings moves, check the full breakdown here and keep an eye on post-earnings momentum.
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