Click to view the earnings moves in RLX
RLX Stock Surges 6.9% on Earnings—Is This the Start of a Bigger Move?
RLX Technology (NYSE:RLX) wowed the market today with strong unaudited Q2 2025 results, pushing its shares up 6.9% to $2.40. This move caught the eye of traders, especially with options markets bracing for a far more dramatic ±15% swing. Is this jump a sign of more to come—or a classic earnings head fake? Let’s look at RLX’s historical track record to put today’s move in perspective.
Breaking Down Today’s Headlines and Options Surge
The story out of RLX this morning was clear: Net revenues soared 40% year-over-year, with international expansion fueling growth and profitability. Margins are up, non-GAAP net income has nearly doubled, and RLX even announced a dividend—something investors often love to see in growth stories.
But the options market told a slightly different tale: traders priced in a massive ±15% move heading into the event, much higher than the typical average earnings day change of 2.1%. With today's jump coming in well below options expectations, does that mean RLX is primed for more volatility in the days ahead, or was the options market simply too optimistic?
How RLX Shares Usually Move on Earnings Day
Let’s anchor today’s reaction in history. Over the past 12 quarters, RLX shares have delivered an average earnings day move of +2.1% with 58.3% of those moves being positive. The stock often gaps up (+2.6% on average) but tends to drift slightly lower from the open to close, with a -0.3% average open-to-close change and downside occurring nearly 60% of the time. So far, today’s surge is well above the typical move, yet still inside the options market’s implied range.
Check the full RLX earnings price history and analysis
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +2.1% | +2.6% | +4.5% | -4.6% | -0.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 58.3% | 58.3% | 33.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 41.7% | 41.7% | 58.3% |
To help visualize how big these moves are in practice, here’s a look at the absolute (magnitude) of past moves—no matter if they were up or down.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% |
| Max Absolute Return | 15.1% | 14.6% | 15.0% | 11.4% | 12.5% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
After the Earnings Hype: What Typically Happens Next?
Perhaps most intriguing is RLX’s performance in the days after earnings. On average, RLX tends to keep moving higher post-earnings, not just on the day of the announcement. The 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 1-week, and 2-week returns after earnings have historically trended positive, with about two-thirds of these moves to the upside.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +2.3% | +4.0% | +4.0% | +5.4% | +5.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 63.6% | 63.6% | 63.6% | 45.5% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 36.4% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 54.5% | 36.4% |
So while RLX doesn’t always post huge day-one pops, it’s had a notable bias toward grinding higher in the weeks after earnings, a stat worth tracking for anyone betting on post-earnings drift.
Spotlight on Unusual Options Activity
Todays’ options volume jumped to 1,564 contracts, above RLX’s typical pace. The single most traded option? A far-dated April 2026 call at the $1.50 strike. Here’s a quick look at that standout contract:
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 17-Apr-26 1.5 C |
| Volume | 500 |
| VWAP price | 0.99 |
| Open interest | 580 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.85 |
Why does this matter? Large blocks in deep-out or long-dated calls can signal someone making a high-conviction, longer-term bet—or simply a big player adjusting risk. Given RLX’s historical post-earnings drift to the upside, some may be looking to ride the next leg higher for months to come.
Takeaway: Is RLX Just Getting Started?
With options pricing in a wild ride and the actual move coming in well below those expectations, RLX may still have room for more action. History says that even after a muted initial response, RLX can grind higher in the following weeks. If you’re trading, watch not just for overnight headlines—but how the stock drifts after the noise fades.
For deeper analysis and a closer look at all the numbers, check RLX’s full earnings move stats here.
Contact Information:
If you have feedback or concerns about the content, please feel free to reach out to us via email at support@marketchameleon.com.
About the Publisher - Marketchameleon.com:
Marketchameleon is a comprehensive financial research and analysis website specializing in stock and options markets. We leverage extensive data, models, and analytics to provide valuable insights into these markets. Our primary goal is to assist traders in identifying potential market developments and assessing potential risks and rewards.
NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.