Click to view the earnings moves in SSL
SSL Pops Nearly 11% After Earnings—But Does History Suggest More Gains?
Sasol Ltd. American Depositary Shares (SSL) just delivered its full-year results, sending the stock price up 10.9% today—landing at $6.97. With the options market bracing for a ±11.5% move, this rally came right in line with expectations, making traders wonder: What usually happens to SSL around earnings, and could the rally continue?
Earnings Beat—And Historical Context
The headline from Johannesburg was clear: cost control, strategic progress, and a massive 75% increase in free cash flow despite a complex global backdrop. That said, turnover and EBITDA both dipped versus last year, and management pointed out ongoing macro volatility.
But what really matters for investors and traders is this: How does SSL typically perform on and after earnings day? Over the past 12 quarters, SSL has averaged a +2.7% return on earnings day, moving higher 75% of the time. The move from prior close to open is usually +1.9%, but gains from open to close are more modest (+0.7%). There's also an upside bias to the day's range, with average moves to the high at +1.9% compared to -1.4% moves to the low. Curious to dive deeper into the historical price reaction around earnings? See the full earnings move history here.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +2.7% | +1.9% | +1.9% | -1.4% | +0.7% |
| % of Moves Up | 75.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 25.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
How Big Are These Moves, Really?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% |
| Max Absolute Return | 10.8% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
Post-Earnings Moves: Quick Pops—But Fizzle Ahead?
Traders looking for momentum after earnings might want to pay attention: on average, SSL jumps +3.1% the day after earnings (with two-thirds of these moves to the upside), then rides up to +5.6% after three days. Yet by the two-week mark, average returns actually dip negative (-5.5%), so historically, any earnings pop hasn’t been sustained over the long term.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +3.1% | +4.7% | +5.6% | +1.0% | -5.5% |
| % of Moves Up | 66.7% | 66.7% | 66.7% | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| % of Moves Down | 33.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 100.0% |
Options Action: A Standout Bet on 19-Sep-25 7.5 Call
Todays option volume spiked to 895 contracts, and the most actively traded single-leg option was the 19-Sep-25 7.5 Call—indicating traders are still placing bullish bets even after the big move.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 19-Sep-25 7.5 C |
| Volume | 553 |
| VWAP price | 0.15 |
| Open interest | 345 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.08 |
Bottom Line: Room for Caution—and Curiosity
SSL’s 10.9% earnings-day surge lined up neatly with what options traders priced in, but if the past is any guide, short-term gains may be tough to hang onto after a few days. Will today’s options traders betting on continued upside be proven right—or does history hint at some profit-taking ahead? As always, the real test comes in the days ahead. Check out the full SSL earnings move statistics here and watch to see whether history repeats itself.
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