Click to view the earnings moves in SJM
SJM Sinks After Earnings—Does the Historical Trend Offer Clues for What’s Next?
The J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE: SJM) dropped -4.8% following its Q1 2026 earnings release, sliding below what options markets were bracing for (±6.4% expected move). Does today’s reaction fit the pattern for SJM, or could this mark a shift in its usual post-earnings behavior?
A Quick Glance at the Numbers
Net sales fell 1% to $2.1 billion as the company faced higher costs and the impact of brand divestitures. Adjusted earnings per share landed at $1.90, down 22% from last year, while the CEO emphasized "momentum" and raised net sales guidance for the year. Still, Wall Street responded with a sharp sell-off.
How Does Today’s Move Compare to History?
SJM isn’t a stranger to volatile earnings days. In fact, over the last 12 quarters, the stock has averaged a -1.0% return on earnings days—modest, but with some significant outliers (including a -15.6% move last quarter!). Historically, the stock gaps down 58.3% of the time on earnings, and the day’s range tends to offer upside for nimble traders: while the average move from open to low is -2.3%, the average open to high is +3.1%. And notably, two-thirds of the time, the stock closes higher than it opens, despite negative opening gaps more often than not.
For a more detailed look, check the full stats here: SJM historical earnings stock performance.
Table: Historical Stock Performance on Earnings Days
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -1.0% | -1.1% | +3.1% | -2.3% | +0.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 41.7% | 41.7% | 66.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 58.3% | 58.3% | 33.3% |
Table: Absolute Stock Price Movements (Magnitude Only)
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% |
| Max Absolute Return | 15.6% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
How Does SJM Do After Earnings Day?
Interestingly, SJM tends to recover after its earnings drop. Over recent quarters, the stock averaged:
- +0.8% two days after earnings (with gains 54.5% of the time),
- +1.1% three days and one week out (with nearly two-thirds of those post-earnings stretches ending in the green),
- And a mild +0.4% two weeks out (72.7% of those moves higher).
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | 0.0% | +0.8% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +0.4% |
| % of Moves Up | 45.5% | 54.5% | 63.6% | 63.6% | 72.7% |
| % of Moves Down | 54.5% | 45.5% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 27.3% |
Options Market: Where’s the Action?
Todays option volume jumped to 5,709 contracts—well above normal. The most actively traded single-leg contract? The 19-Sep-25 100 P, where over a thousand puts changed hands—suggesting some traders may be betting on more downside or hedging existing positions.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 19-Sep-25 100 P |
| Volume | 1,109 |
| VWAP price | 1.15 |
| Open interest | 95 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 11.35 |
Takeaway: Is SJM Setting Up for a Bounce?
With today’s drop already pushing the stock well past its average earnings day move, and a historical pattern of upside drift after big down opens, it’ll be worth watching SJM closely in the next few days. Will the bounce play out again, or is this time truly different?
For a deeper dive on SJM’s historical stock performance around earnings, see the SJM historical earnings price movement page.
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