Click to view the earnings moves in ASO
ASO Stock Tanks on Earnings: Does History Suggest a Rebound?
Academy Sports And Outdoors (ASO) just reported earnings, and the reaction was immediate—shares dropped -8.7%, landing at $48.96 as of the latest check. This move even edged out what the options market was bracing for, with expectations of an ±8.3% swing. With a rush of nearly 3,000 option contracts traded today, one question hangs in the air: Is this sharp sell-off an anomaly, or par for the course when it comes to ASO's earnings reactions?
Historical Earnings Moves: A Bullish Tilt, Until Now
History tells an intriguing story. Over the past 12 quarters, ASO stock has averaged a solid +3.9% return on earnings days. In fact, 75% of these moves were to the upside, while just 25% saw downside—a clear tilt toward positive reactions. Typically, the stock gapped up +0.6% at the open and managed an average climb of +3.5% from open to close. Interestingly, the range between the day's high and low (with swings from +6.8% to -2.6%) showed a distinct upward bias, too.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +3.9% | +0.6% | +6.8% | -2.6% | +3.5% |
| % of Moves Up | 75.0% | 58.3% | 66.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 25.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
See full stats: ASO Earnings Historical Price Movements
Measuring the Magnitude: How Big Do These Moves Get?
On average, ASO’s earnings day volatility isn't subtle—historically, the stock's absolute moves clock in at 6.1%, with the biggest one-day swing topping out at 15.4%. This puts today’s -8.7% slide slightly above average in terms of size, but far from unprecedented. Take a look at how wild these days can get:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 5.1% |
| Max Absolute Return | 15.4% | 14.8% | 15.1% | 5.7% | 13.7% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.3% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
What Happens After Earnings?
While today’s move feels sharp, the numbers suggest there could be opportunity (or more volatility) ahead. In the week following earnings, ASO has typically climbed +2.9% with upward moves occurring 75% of the time. Even one to three days after earnings, the odds have historically tilted positive. The lone caveat? By two weeks out, results have been a coin toss.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.2% | +1.4% | +1.8% | +2.9% | 0.0% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | 75.0% | 33.3% |
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 25.0% | 66.7% |
Options Market in Focus: Spotlight on Today’s Most Active Contract
The busiest single-leg contract today? The 05-Sep-25 47 P (a put expiring in September 2025), trading 275 contracts—despite just a single contract of open interest and a surprisingly low VWAP price.
| Option Contract | 05-Sep-25 47 P |
|---|---|
| Volume | 275 |
| VWAP price | 0.23 |
| Open interest | 1 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 6.85 |
Key Takeaways: Is History Still a Guide?
While today’s -8.7% move stands out—especially compared to the typically bullish post-earnings tilt for ASO—it falls well within the realm of prior earnings day volatility. With the stock’s historical pattern favoring a rebound in the days after earnings, all eyes will be on whether this dip turns into another buying opportunity, or signals a break in the trend. Either way, it’s worth watching closely as the dust settles.
Dig deeper into the stats and history here: Historical Earnings Price Movement for ASO.
Contact Information:
If you have feedback or concerns about the content, please feel free to reach out to us via email at support@marketchameleon.com.
About the Publisher - Marketchameleon.com:
Marketchameleon is a comprehensive financial research and analysis website specializing in stock and options markets. We leverage extensive data, models, and analytics to provide valuable insights into these markets. Our primary goal is to assist traders in identifying potential market developments and assessing potential risks and rewards.
NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.