Click to view the earnings moves in ABM
ABM Sinks After Q3 Earnings—Will History Repeat?
ABM Industries (NYSE:ABM) delivered third-quarter earnings this morning that featured solid organic revenue growth and strong cash generation, yet the stock slipped 6.2% in the aftermath. With the options market expecting a move of ±8.3% and ABM shares already on the move, many traders are asking: Is this just a knee-jerk reaction—or the start of something bigger?
Key Results: Strong Revenue and Cash Flow, But Margins Under Pressure
For its fiscal Q3 2025, ABM reported revenue up 6.2% year-over-year to $2.2 billion, driven by a 5.0% organic boost and new bookings that climbed 15%. Adjusted EBITDA improved by 5% to $125.8 million, while operating cash flow soared by 120% to $175 million. Yet, higher interest costs and targeted investments meant that adjusted earnings per share nudged down slightly to $0.82 versus $0.84 a year ago. ABM also expanded its share buyback program by $150 million—a sign of board confidence despite near-term margin challenges.
Leadership struck an upbeat tone, noting new growth in technical and manufacturing segments but cautioning about a sluggish rebound in some commercial office markets. A recently launched restructuring program is expected to boost efficiency and save $35 million annually starting in Q4 and ramping into next year.
Historical Earnings Moves: Is This Decline Par for the Course?
Historically, ABM’s stock performance around earnings days has skewed negative. On average, over the last 12 quarters, the stock posted a -2.2% return on earnings days, with only 33.3% of those sessions finishing in the green. Gaps at the open are less severe—averaging -0.2%—but the drift from the open to the low is sharper, averaging -5.7%, and open-to-close tends to finish lower 66.7% of the time. Check the full stats here.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -2.2% | -0.2% | +3.2% | -5.7% | -1.9% |
| % of Moves Up | 33.3% | 58.3% | 33.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 66.7% | 41.7% | 66.7% |
How Wild Are These Earnings Moves? Measuring Volatility and Range
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% |
| Max Absolute Return | 17.9% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 14.2% | 14.2% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
Today’s drop is actually smaller than the average expected move priced into the options market (±8.3%) and less than the prior earnings move of -9.1%. Yet it’s consistent with a pattern where ABM is more likely to see a negative earnings-day reaction.
Post-Earnings Odds: Do ABM Shares Rebound?
Looking beyond the initial earnings day, ABM has shown a mild tendency to stabilize, though gains are muted. On average, the stock posts a -0.3% return one day after earnings, but 54.5% of the time the stock finishes up the following day.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.3% | -1.6% | -1.7% | -1.5% | -2.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 54.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 45.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% |
Spotlight: Most Actively Traded ABM Option
On a busy options day, the most actively traded single-leg ABM option was the 19-Sep-25 50 Call. Here are the key details:
| Option Contract | 19-Sep-25 50 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 111 |
| VWAP price | 0.24 |
| Open interest | 297 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 1.18 |
The Takeaway
Despite some solid fundamentals, ABM’s history around earnings shows a persistent bias toward negative stock reactions—today being no exception. But with almost half the time seeing a reversal the next day, and an unusually active options market, it may pay to watch the price action closely over the next several sessions.
Want to dig deeper into ABM's historical stock performance around earnings? Click here for the full earnings price movement stats.
Contact Information:
If you have feedback or concerns about the content, please feel free to reach out to us via email at support@marketchameleon.com.
About the Publisher - Marketchameleon.com:
Marketchameleon is a comprehensive financial research and analysis website specializing in stock and options markets. We leverage extensive data, models, and analytics to provide valuable insights into these markets. Our primary goal is to assist traders in identifying potential market developments and assessing potential risks and rewards.
NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.