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Is Toyota's Earnings Day Typically a Market Mover? Let’s Dive Into the Data
With Toyota Motor (TM) announcing earnings today and the stock currently down -2.2%, the big question on traders’ minds is: does history suggest this move is out of the ordinary, or just business as usual?
What Do Earnings Days Usually Look Like for TM?
If you’re wondering how TM tends to behave around earnings, you’re not alone. Historically, the options market has anticipated sizeable swings; this quarter, the market priced in a ±5.1% move—an indication of just how much volatility traders expect. Yet, if you look at the data from the past 12 quarters, the typical actual move tells a different story.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.9% | +0.7% | +1.4% | -1.0% | +0.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 66.7% | 58.3% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 33.3% | 41.7% | 50.0% |
The takeaway? TM’s average return on earnings day has been a modest +0.9%, with about two-thirds of the quarters posting a gain. Interestingly, even though there’s been some bias toward upward movement, there are also plenty of times (one-third of quarters) where the stock dipped instead.
How Wild Do TM Earnings Moves Get?
While option traders sometimes brace for big surprises, TM’s biggest single-day post-earnings jump in the last three years was 7.8% (either direction). Most moves, however, have been more muted:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Max Absolute Return | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
With an average absolute move around 2.9%, Toyota tends not to deliver the outsized surprises that options pricing sometimes anticipates—this can present both opportunity and risk for nimble traders.
What Happens After Earnings Day?
So, what’s in store after the dust settles? Historically, TM’s price action in the days following earnings has leaned slightly negative, with the most notable drop seen one week after reporting, averaging a -1.0% return.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | 0.0% | -0.8% | -0.4% | -1.0% | -0.6% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 41.7% | 41.7% | 25.0% | 41.7% |
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 58.3% | 58.3% | 75.0% | 58.3% |
Traders looking for a sustained rally post-earnings might want to temper their expectations—downside has prevailed in most cases over the following week.
What Should You Watch Next?
While today’s -2.2% move sits within TM’s historical range for earnings-day swings, the current options market expectations look a bit aggressive relative to typical historical results. The tendency for small, positive earnings moves—followed by drift or pullback in the week after—should give investors pause before betting on an outsized rally or collapse. Still, with the company trading near $199.46, a sharp surprise in fundamentals could always rewrite the script.
Want to dig deeper? Check out Toyota’s full historical earnings day performance here to get every detail, pattern, and outlier.
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