Scandium Game-Changer: New Metallurgy Could Redefine North American Supply

Yolowire 19-Dec-2025 6:52 AM

When Prime Minister Mark Carney concluded his November visit to Abu Dhabi with a $1 billion commitment to expand Canada's critical minerals processing capacity, the announcement signaled more than incremental policy adjustment. It marked Ottawa's recognition that processing infrastructure, not just mining, determines whether Canada captures value from its mineral endowment or remains a raw material exporter in an increasingly protectionist global economy.

The timing reflects broader anxiety across Western capitals. With China controlling 85% of global refined scandium production and maintaining leverage over rare earth processing, the vulnerability of North American supply chains has moved from academic concern to strategic priority. Carney's pledge, part of a larger bilateral investment framework securing $70 billion in UAE commitments to Canada, arrives as Washington implements price floors for domestic critical minerals and Australia accelerates joint development projects with American defense contractors.

Against this backdrop, a technical breakthrough at a British Columbia copper-gold project has quietly positioned Canada to become a significant scandium supplier, a development with implications extending well beyond one company's metallurgical success.

Major Producers Expand Critical Minerals Exposure

The shifting policy landscape is already reshaping how established producers approach polymetallic deposits. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), one of the world's largest publicly traded copper producers, has more than just copper in its critical metals' portfolio. The company also produces molybdenum at its Arizona operations. The mining giant produced 22 million recoverable pounds of molybdenum (up 10% y-o-y) during the three months ended September 30, 2025, selling 19 million pounds at an average of 24.07 per pound.

Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL), the largest primary silver producer in the U.S., is increasingly cited in sector outlooks as a beneficiary of rising North American demand for strategic metals tied to electrification and grid expansion. With operations in Alaska, Idaho, and Québec, Hecla offers a low-risk jurisdictional profile at a time when domestic supply security is driving policy and investment. Its expanding silver output and reserve base position the company as a key player in meeting tightening industrial and energy-transition demand. Later this month, Hecla becomes part of the S&P MidCap 400 Index, giving it even more exposure to investors.

Coeur Mining, Inc. (NYSE:CDE), with core operations in Nevada, Alaska, and South Dakota, reflects how U.S.-based producers are adapting to a mining cycle defined by dual precious-and-industrial metal demand. As federal policy continues to prioritize domestic resource development, Coeur's North American footprint aligns closely with market expectations for secure, high-value production. Last month, Coeur said it was paying about $7 billion to acquire New Gold for the purpose of creating a new, all-North American senior precious metals producer.

The Hat Project's Metallurgical Inflection Point

While major producers optimize and expand, Doubleview Gold Corp. (TSXV:DBG) (OTC:DBLVF) has demonstrated a processing breakthrough that could redefine scandium supply economics. On November 25, the company announced results from its two-year metallurgical program at the Hat polymetallic deposit in British Columbia's Golden Triangle: 82% primary scandium extraction with 88% overall recovery to high-purity scandium oxide product, achieved by recovering scandium from copper flotation tailings.

"Today's results are a game-changer for the Hat project and potentially for the entire scandium industry," said CEO Farshad Shirvani. "We can recover high-value scandium directly from the tailings of a standard copper flotation circuit, using acid produced from internally generated pyrite."

The significance lies not in scandium grades, the Hat deposit's estimated 300-500 million tonnes at 40 ppm scandium oxide is substantial but not extraordinary, but in the cost structure. Most scandium projects face the economic challenge of justifying standalone operations for a low-volume, high-value product. Hat's approach treats scandium as a byproduct credit against a copper-gold operation already justified by base and precious metal economics.

The 2024 maiden resource estimate outlined 150 million tonnes indicated at 0.408% copper equivalent and 477 million tonnes inferred at 0.344% copper equivalent, containing 2.68 billion pounds of copper and 3.26 million ounces of gold. The December 2025 drilling campaign (13,290 meters across 19 holes) extended mineralization significantly, with drill hole H099 intersecting 438 meters of 0.40% copper equivalent including a 52-meter interval grading 1.02% copper equivalent.

Located just 10 kilometers from Highway 51 with provincial and federal infrastructure commitments for critical metals mining, Hat benefits from the logistics profile rarely available in remote scandium projects. The deposit's gentle topography at 950 meters elevation and near-surface mineralization support conventional open-pit economics.

Policy Convergence and Market Timing

The metallurgical breakthrough arrives as policy mechanisms designed to support domestic critical minerals production move from discussion to implementation. Carney's $1 billion processing commitment follows the U.S. Defense Department's price floor arrangements with MP Materials and substantial Export-Import Bank financing for domestic scandium projects. These mechanisms address the market failure that has historically constrained Western scandium development: Chinese producers can flood markets with below-cost material to prevent competition from establishing.

Current global scandium production approximates 15-20 tonnes annually. Industry forecasts project demand exceeding 500 tonnes by 2028, driven primarily by solid oxide fuel cells and aluminum-scandium alloys for aerospace and electric vehicles. The supply-demand imbalance creates the conditions under which government offtake agreements and price supports become economically rational, not as subsidies, but as insurance against supply disruption.

For Doubleview, the path forward centers on integrating 2025 drill results into an updated resource estimate expected in the coming months, followed by incorporation into the preliminary economic assessment currently under third-party review. The company has demonstrated technical viability for scandium recovery and now the policy framework appears equally supportive for future commercial development.

Shirvani, the geologist who discovered the deposit in 2014, emphasized the strategic dimension: "The U.S. has finally accepted that dependence on adversarial supply chains is a national security risk. The question is which projects deliver first."

With copper prices supported by electrification demand, gold providing portfolio diversification, and scandium offering optionality on policy-driven markets, Hat represents exposure to multiple commodity themes within a single development project. Whether that convergence translates to commercial production depends on multiple factors, but for the first time, the metallurgy, policy environment, and market conditions appear aligned.

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Disclosure: It should be noted that the scandium resource potential is based on drill holes completed for the July 25, 2024 maiden resource estimate, which focused on metals other than scandium. The potential quantity and grade are conceptual in nature, as there has been insufficient exploration to define a mineral resource, and there is no certainty that further exploration will result in the target being delineated as a mineral resource. That said, scandium is expected to be included in the upcoming resource estimate.