Click to view the earnings moves in JBL
Did Jabil’s -6.6% Post-Earnings Move Buck the Trend?
If you’re tracking Jabil (JBL), today’s earnings announcement delivered a punch: the stock dropped -6.6% to $210.99. This fall may seem dramatic, but was it out of the ordinary? Let’s dig into the data and see how today’s move compares to historical patterns around Jabil’s earnings days.
What the Numbers Say About Jabil’s Typical Earnings Day Swings
Before the results, options markets were bracing for a hefty swing—anticipating a possible move of ±11.8%. Today’s drop was well within those bounds, but it sharply contrasted with Jabil’s average post-earnings trajectory: over the last 12 quarters, JBL’s stock price has gained +2.8% on average following an earnings report, with a strong 66.7% chance of ending higher.
Digging deeper, the open-to-close stats show a smaller, but still positive, average return of +0.8%, and most sessions see a tilt to the upside, both at the open and through the session. Here’s a look at how these moves typically break down on earnings days:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +2.8% | +1.9% | +4.6% | -3.1% | +0.8% |
| % of Moves Up | 66.7% | 66.7% | 58.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 33.3% | 33.3% | 41.7% |
And when it comes to sheer magnitude—regardless of direction—JBL has delivered some sizable earnings day shifts, averaging 8.9% in either direction. Notably, today’s move is neither a record nor a fluke:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 8.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% |
| Max Absolute Return | 18.8% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 11.1% |
| Min Absolute Return | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
How Does JBL Usually Trade After Earnings?
History suggests that post-earnings, Jabil tends to grind higher. For example, on average, JBL rises +1.3% over the three days after earnings, with over 83% of past occurrences posting a gain. The strength tends to hold for up to two weeks post-event.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.6% | +1.1% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.6% |
| % of Moves Up | 75.0% | 75.0% | 83.3% | 58.3% | 66.7% |
| % of Moves Down | 25.0% | 25.0% | 16.7% | 41.7% | 33.3% |
If history is a guide, traders will be watching closely to see if this post-earnings drop follows the pattern of stabilizing—and then trending higher—over the next two weeks. To dig into the granular numbers and more historical context, visit the Jabil historical earnings stock performance page.
Options Market: Which Trade Caught the Most Attention?
Today’s options volume spiked to 4,220 contracts as traders adjusted positions around earnings. The single most actively traded contract? The 17-Oct-25 240 Call. Here’s how the key numbers looked for that contract:
| Option Contract | 17-Oct-25 240 C |
| Volume | 611 |
| VWAP price | 0.92 |
| Open interest | 934 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 8.00 |
The Takeaway: Was Today Really That Unusual?
While today’s -6.6% move is a sizable disappointment for bulls, history shows that Jabil has weathered plenty of ups and downs on earnings day. What stands out most: even after significant moves, the stock’s odds have favored further upside over the weeks that follow. Whether that pattern repeats is what savvy traders will be watching for this time around.
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