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MSTR Call Spread Trade Sees $415K Bet as Stock Gains 5.82%
On October 1, 2025, MicroStrategy (MSTR) caught traders’ attention with a large call spread trade totaling over $415,000 in premium paid. The timing? Right as the stock notched a 5.82% gain, moving from $335.15 to $340.95. Here’s why the specifics matter and what the rest of the data says about MSTR’s direction.
Trade Details: $450-$550 Call Spread With $4.7 Million Upside
| Expiration | Strikes | Contracts | VWAP Price | Trade Premium | Days to Expiration | Reference Stock Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16-Jan-26 | 450/550 Call Spread | 1,022 | $8.12 | $415,064 | 107 | $335.15 |
- Spread traded for $8.12 average (VWAP), now worth $8.85—a gain of $0.73 or 9.0% shortly after the print.
- Stock rallied $5.81 after the trade, aiding the spread’s value.
- To achieve maximum profit (about $4.7 million), MSTR needs to close above $550 by January 16, 2026.
Want to dig deeper into multi-leg trade structures? See MSTR multi-leg trade analysis here.
Stock Technicals: Momentum Swings to Bullish Despite Choppy History
MSTR’s stock performance has delivered eye-popping long-term returns, up 102.2% over the past year and a massive 2164.0% in five years—trouncing the S&P 500 by wide margins. Shorter-term performance, however, has been more mixed.
| Duration | MSTR Return | Low | High | SPY Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | +5.8% | 331.20 | 343.73 | -0.1% |
| 2 Week | +1.7% | 292.36 | 358.25 | +1.1% |
| 1 Month | +1.9% | 292.36 | 358.25 | +3.5% |
| 3 Month | -15.7% | 292.36 | 457.22 | +8.0% |
| 6 Month | +17.8% | 235.93 | 457.22 | +20.4% |
| 1 Year | +102.2% | 157.02 | 543.00 | +17.3% |
| YTD | +17.7% | 231.51 | 457.22 | +14.5% |
| 3 Year | +1505.9% | 13.26 | 543.00 | +92.2% |
| 5 Year | +2164.0% | 13.26 | 543.00 | +108.5% |
- Price has surged 117.1% off its 52-week low, but is 37.2% below its 52-week high.
- Currently, MSTR is breaking above expected daily resistance of $331.81, signaling momentum to the upside.
- Stock is now 3.8% above the 20-day average, though 4.5% below the 50-day average, hinting at near-term volatility.
Relative to the SPY index, MSTR has been an outperformer over the past year (+102.2% vs +17.3%), but trailed the market in the last three months. Short-term, the pendulum swung back in MSTR’s favor with outperformance over two weeks (+1.7% vs +1.1%).
Option Skew Indicator Is Bullish—Implied Volatility Points to Positive Sentiment
The Market Chameleon 30-day skew rank stands at 82%—well above average and indicative of bullish sentiment in MSTR’s options. A rank of 100% is the most bullish reading seen in a year, so current readings point to strong call-side demand. This can be a hint that traders anticipate upward movement or are seeking upside exposure after a recent dip.
Options skew signals: 82% bullish posture; calls are attracting premium pricing vs. puts in the near-term.
Check out more bullish call spreads and other multi-leg opportunities on the Market Chameleon Multi-Leg Option Trades Screener.
Takeaway: MSTR’s $415K Call Spread Trade Puts Spotlight on Bullish Potential
This notable $415K call spread in MSTR stands out for its risk-reward ratio and size, especially against the backdrop of a sharp single-day rally and bullish option skew. While MSTR’s track record boasts massive gains, the stock’s volatility is high and past outperformance hasn’t been a guarantee of future results. The buyer of the call spread is positioning for a substantial move above $550 in the next 107 days, aiming for multi-million-dollar upside if the momentum continues.
Whether this is a tactical hedge or a directional wager, it’s a sign that some traders see room for further upside in MSTR—potentially more than the recent rally might suggest. The trade also illustrates how option spreads can magnify returns for those with conviction in high-volatility stocks. As always, follow up with your own research and monitor technical and sentiment indicators to see how this thesis develops.
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NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
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Disclosure: This article was generated with the assistance of AI