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10,024 Contract Call Spread in IBIT Shows 4.2% Quick Gain—Is More Upside Ahead?
Early this morning, options activity in iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) jumped off the page when a trader put down more than $419,000 to buy a call spread with a 10,024 contract size. Within less than an hour, this position had already produced an average gain of 4.2%. What could this major bet tell us about the current sentiment on IBIT and the outlook through mid-October?
Major Trade Details: Bullish Bet Seeks 400% Return
Here’s how the numbers break down for the big call spread executed at 09:31:57 on October 2, 2025:
| Expiration | 17-Oct-25 |
|---|---|
| Strike Prices | 70-75 Call Spread |
| Number of Contracts | 10,024 |
| Days to Expiration | 15 |
| VWAP Trade Price | 0.84 |
| Current Spread Price (as of 10:15:00) | 0.87 |
| Instant Gain | 0.03 (+4.2%) |
| Underlying Stock Reference Price | 67.79 (at trade time) ? 68.04 (current) |
| Premium Paid | Approx. $419,000 |
| Maximum Profit Potential | Approx. $2,100,000 |
| Break-even Stock Price at Expiration | Above $70.84 |
| Maximum Profit Stock Price | Above $75 by October 17, 2025 |
To review more details or explore similar trades, check out the IBIT multi-leg trade analyzer.
Risk/Reward Dynamics Favor Bold Upside Play
By putting down $419K on this 10,024-lot call spread, the trader stands to gain up to $2.1M—a potential return of roughly 400% if IBIT trades above $75 in just 15 days. Even more telling: the spread price quickly rose by 0.03 (to 0.87) as IBIT shares ticked higher from $67.79 to $68.04, showing positive price sensitivity (delta) and a fast move into profit.
Technicals Signal Outperformance and Upward Momentum
The bullish options activity matches IBIT’s technical picture. Today’s 1.95% jump brings IBIT to $68.04, just 2.7% below its 52-week high and up a stunning 103.3% from the 52-week low. Compared to major averages, IBIT outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY) by a wide margin:
| Duration | IBIT Return | SPY Return |
|---|---|---|
| Today | +2.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 Weeks | +3.6% | +1.7% |
| 1 Month | +10.8% | +4.0% |
| 3 Months | +13.7% | +8.6% |
| 6 Months | +40.9% | +19.9% |
| 1 Year | +93.7% | +18.9% |
| YTD | +28.3% | +15.0% |
All key moving averages (20, 50, 250 day) are rising, and the stock is currently 22.7% above its 250-day average—a strong technical posture. The only minor caution: short-term averages (20-day vs 50-day) are slightly negative, but this is typical in strong upward moves as moving averages catch up to sharp gains.
Options Skew Indicates Bullish Sentiment Persists
Market makers’ forward-looking view remains bullish based on the 30-day implied volatility skew, which currently sits at the 73rd percentile (where 100% is the most bullish over the past year). This indicator—part of Market Chameleon’s proprietary system—shows that, relative to the past 52 weeks, traders are leaning heavily bullish with how they’re pricing out-of-the-money calls versus puts. That fits perfectly with the big call spread executed today.
What to Watch: Will Momentum Continue?
The fast 4.2% gain in the call spread shows the market is quickly pricing in higher odds of a further rally. For the trade to reach max profit, IBIT needs to climb about 10.2% (from $68.04 to $75) in just over two weeks. That’s ambitious, but given the recent momentum, positive skew, and history of sharp Bitcoin-related moves, it’s not out of the question.
Want to dig into more multi-leg trades like this one? Head to the multi-leg option trades screener for more insights.
Takeaway: A Clear Bullish Signal
This 10,024-lot call spread on IBIT, showing a rapid gain and targeting a huge payoff, is a clear vote of confidence in a bullish move by mid-October. Both the technical setup and the options market’s forward-looking sentiment align with this view. For traders watching IBIT, this large, directional play may be worth tracking in the coming days—especially with such outsized risk/reward dynamics at play.
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Disclosure: This article was generated with the assistance of AI