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Disney Posts Earnings: Will the Magic Hold This Time?
Disney just unveiled its latest earnings numbers—and traders are buzzing with anticipation. With the options market pricing in a ±2.7% swing for DIS stock, everyone’s asking: Will Disney dazzle investors this quarter, or will it deliver a letdown?
Before you make any moves, let’s dig into what history shows about Disney’s stock performance on—and after—earnings day. There’s some intriguing data hiding in plain sight.
How Has DIS Traditionally Reacted on Earnings Day?
First, let’s address the headline statistic: over the past 12 quarters, Disney shares have averaged a small dip of -0.2% on earnings day. While the opening gap (the move from the previous close to the opening bell) often shows a bit of excitement—with an average +1.0% jump—traders are just as likely to see red by the end of the session. In fact, the stock closes lower 66.7% of the time after the earnings open.
Looking closer, the typical high after the open has been a gain of +2.0%, but DIS tends to see the day’s low dip as much as -2.8%. Clearly, it’s not unusual for the stock to take investors on a ride after the headlines hit.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.2% | +1.0% | +2.0% | -2.8% | -1.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 41.7% | 58.3% | 33.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 58.3% | 41.7% | 66.7% |
For even more stats and an in-depth breakdown of historical stock reactions around Disney’s earnings, check out the full details on the DIS Earnings Stock Performance page.
Magnitude Matters: How Big Are the Moves?
Even when the average move is modest, earnings day can spark major price swings. Historically, the average absolute return has been 6.9%, with a max absolute return reaching as high as 13.2%. The smallest post-earnings move still clocks in at a meaningful 1.3%.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 6.9% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| Max Absolute Return | 13.2% | 10.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% |
| Min Absolute Return | 1.3% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
What Happens After Earnings? Don’t Blink
If you’re considering whether to trade Disney after the big reveal, it’s worth noting that gains tend to follow—but with a twist. On average, the stock ekes out a small win of +0.2% the day after, rising to +1.8% one week post-earnings, with nearly two-thirds of moves in that period landing on the upside.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.2% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +1.8% | +1.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 41.7% | 58.3% | 41.7% | 66.7% | 58.3% |
| % of Moves Down | 58.3% | 41.7% | 58.3% | 33.3% | 41.7% |
Takeaway: Will Disney Deliver or Disappoint?
History suggests Disney earnings day can be volatile, often marked by early gains and late-day fades. But the story doesn’t end at the close: traders willing to hold through the noise might see brighter days, with positive momentum building in the week that follows. Still, past isn’t always prologue—especially with the options market bracing for a ±2.7% move and a hefty 2,061 contracts traded today.
As always, dive deeper into the numbers yourself. For even more insights and all the stats behind Disney’s historical earnings reactions, visit the full Disney Earnings Stock Performance page here.
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