IBIT Call Spread Sees Over $726K Wager as Option Skew Turns Bullish: What’s the Opportunity?
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Large Call Spread Trade Emerges With $1.3 Million Profit Potential
On November 5, 2025, an outsized call spread trade surfaced in iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) options, marking a notable strategic move. Traders bought an 8,024-lot call spread at the 60 and 65 strikes for a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $1.81 per spread. Within just a few hours, the spread ticked up to $1.83, giving buyers a quick 0.9% gain—or about $16,000 in aggregate—thanks to a $0.72 increase in the stock from $58.09 to $58.80.
| Option Details | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 16-Jan-26 |
| Strikes | 60-65 (Call Spread) |
| Contracts Traded | 8,024 |
| Days to Expiry | 72 |
| VWAP Price | 1.81 |
| VWAP Bid | 1.72 |
| VWAP Ask | 1.84 |
| Stock Price at Trade | 58.09 |
Buyers laid out over $726,000 for the potential to pocket about $1.3 million in profits if IBIT closes above $65 on expiration. Curious how these spreads are analyzed? Check out the multi-leg trade analyzer for more details on this strategy.
Trade Insights: Strategic Risk for Big Upside
This trade structure signals a directional bet with defined risk and capped reward. To hit max profit, IBIT needs to finish above $65 at expiration—a 10.5% move higher from the entry point. With 72 days until expiry, this play offers time for volatility to work in the trader’s favor.
The quick gain seen already is a byproduct of the stock moving up by 0.72, while the tight spread in the bid-ask around the trade confirms it was efficiently executed. Notably, the size of this trade underscores either high conviction or potential hedging against another portfolio.
Technicals Flash Caution: Short-Term Trend Lags Behind Market
Despite the optimism suggested by the options trade, technical signals remain subdued for IBIT. Here’s the quick breakdown:
- Stock Price: $58.80 (+2.83% on the day)
- Distance from 52-week High: -18.1%
- Above 52-week Low: +50.4%
- Below 20- and 50-Day Moving Averages: -7.1% and -8.5%, respectively
- Bearish Crossover: 20-day MA below the 50-day MA
The recent bearish crossover and drop below short- and intermediate-term moving averages hint at lingering caution. In the last three months, IBIT returned -9.8% while SPY gained +7.8%. The underperformance is clear in the short term—even as IBIT’s one-year performance of +53.8% easily outpaces SPY’s +20.3%.
| Duration | IBIT Return | SPY Return | IBIT Low | IBIT High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | +2.9% | +0.5% | 57.96 | 58.95 |
| 2 Weeks | -7.4% | +1.1% | 56.49 | 65.97 |
| 1 Month | -15.8% | +1.4% | 56.49 | 71.82 |
| 3 Months | -9.8% | +7.8% | 56.49 | 71.82 |
| 6 Months | +6.6% | +20.3% | 53.02 | 71.82 |
| 1 Year | +53.8% | +20.3% | 39.11 | 71.82 |
| YTD | +10.9% | +16.7% | 42.98 | 71.82 |
Option Skew Indicator Signals Bullish Outlook Despite Price Lull
While recent performance is choppy, options market sentiment is painting a more optimistic picture. The 30-day implied volatility skew has an 81% bullish rank—placing it in the top fifth of all readings over the past year. This suggests that, beneath the surface, option traders are positioning for potential upside in IBIT, possibly in anticipation of a larger bitcoin-related move.
The strong skew doesn’t guarantee future gains, but it does imply that sophisticated market players expect some upside volatility in the near-to-medium term. Traders can screen for more multi-leg call spreads and other structures at this multi-leg screener.
Takeaway: Divergence Between Technicals and Option Market Expectations
IBIT’s high-volume call spread—risking over $726K for the shot at a $1.3 million gain—highlights a growing divergence between lackluster short-term technicals and increasingly bullish option sentiment. If IBIT closes above $65 by January 2026, these buyers could be handsomely rewarded.
As always, while options provide unique ways to express market views, risk remains defined but significant. The interplay between lagging technicals and bullish skew leaves room for both skepticism and intrigue. For traders looking to dig deeper, it may pay to watch both price and option flows as expiration approaches. Explore similar call spreads and multi-leg trades for fresh opportunities using this screener.
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