Open-market purchases and sales from Forms 4 (SEC), one row per trade - grants, option exercises, tax withholding and gifts left out; a trade filed by several owners (a fund and its partner on the board) counted once; purchases in an IPO or a financing kept apart from open-market buys; sales under a 10b5-1 plan marked as planned. What happened next is measured from the first trading day after the filing. These are historical data points, not buy or sell signals.
The score adds up what stands out: several insiders buying within two weeks (+1 for two, +3 for three or more), the size ($250K+ +1, $1M+ +2), the stake (+25% +1, more than doubled +2), the CEO or CFO (+1), a fall before the buy (20%+ in 3 months +1, 30%+ +2), the first insider buy in the company in 2 years (+2; the buyer's own first there +1), and the buyer's record on earlier buys (beat the sector 60%+ of the time on 5+ buys +2, 30% or less -2). Each item is a fact about the trade; how similar buys did is below.
| Filed | Traded | Stock | Insider | Role | Value | Stake | 3 mo before | Score | What stands out | Since filing | Sector | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | Oct 26 | ACN ↗ | Sweet Julie Spellman | CEO | $3.0M | +33% | -33.4% | 9 | 2 insiders bought within two weeks$3.0M purchaseAdded 33% to their stakeThe CEO boughtAfter a 33% fall in 3 monthsFirst insider buy in over 2 years | +2.9% | Technology | ||||||||
| Nov 4 | Nov 2 | AN ↗ | Manley Michael Mark | CEO | $1.0M | +4% | +11.2% | 8 | 3 insiders bought within two weeks$1.0M purchaseThe CEO boughtFirst insider buy in over 2 years | -1.1% | Consumer Cyclical | ||||||||
| Oct 19 | Oct 16 | APLD ↗ | Cummins Wes | CEO | $1.0M | +1% | +55.6% | 8 | 2 insiders bought within two weeks$1.0M purchaseThe CEO boughtFirst insider buy in over 2 yearsBuyer's earlier buys beat the sector 61% of the time (99 buys) | -13.5% | Technology | ||||||||
| Nov 4 | Nov 3 | AN ↗ | Szlosek Thomas A | CFO | $200K | +6% | +11.2% | 8 | 3 insiders bought within two weeksThe CFO boughtFirst insider buy in over 2 yearsBuyer's earlier buys beat the sector 67% of the time (6 buys) | -1.1% | Consumer Cyclical | ||||||||
| Nov 4 | Nov 2 | AN ↗ | Szlosek Thomas A | CFO | $100K | +3% | +11.2% | 8 | 3 insiders bought within two weeksThe CFO boughtFirst insider buy in over 2 yearsBuyer's earlier buys beat the sector 67% of the time (6 buys) | -1.1% | Consumer Cyclical | ||||||||
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Every open-market buy filed from 2016 to three months ago, with the stock 3 months (63 trading days) after the first trading day after the filing, against the company's sector ETF (SPY when there is none). Point in time: a buyer's record counts only the earlier buys whose result was known by then. Most of these items move the odds only a little - the average buy lags its sector more often than it beats it - so they describe the trade, they don't predict it.
| Buys where... | Buys | Up after 3 months | Beat the sector | Average vs sector | Median 3-month move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Every open-market buy | 161,440 | 55% | 44.0% | +0.7 pts | +1.9% |
| 3 or more insiders bought within two weeks | 41,568 | 56% | 46.1% | +1.8 pts | +2.6% |
| 2 insiders bought within two weeks | 29,168 | 54% | 43.5% | 0.0 pts | +1.7% |
| $1M+ purchase | 11,664 | 53% | 43.1% | -0.6 pts | +1.7% |
| More than doubled their stake | 7,677 | 54% | 43.4% | +1.9 pts | +1.8% |
| The CEO or CFO bought | 36,236 | 52% | 43.8% | +0.7 pts | +1.1% |
| After a 30%+ fall in 3 months | 7,335 | 48% | 40.3% | +2.1 pts | -1.0% |
| First insider buy in the company in 2+ years | 16,939 | 52% | 41.9% | +2.0 pts | +0.7% |
| Buyer's earlier buys beat the sector 60%+ (5+ buys) | 21,013 | 57% | 45.1% | +0.7 pts | +2.5% |
| Buyer's earlier buys beat the sector 30% or less | 19,462 | 52% | 41.0% | +0.7 pts | +1.1% |
| Score 0-2 | 92,851 | 55% | 43.3% | +0.2 pts | +1.8% |
| Score 3-4 | 48,268 | 55% | 44.6% | +1.1 pts | +2.1% |
| Score 5-6 | 18,020 | 55% | 45.8% | +1.7 pts | +2.4% |
| Score 7+ | 2,301 | 52% | 43.9% | +1.5 pts | +1.2% |
Worked out Nov 9 8:20 PM ET.