IBIT Sees $207K Call Spread Bet as Bullish Skew Indicator Hits 91%—Traders Target $90 Strike for 2026
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High-Volume Call Spread Trade: $207K Laid Out for Potential $793K Profit
A striking 1,000-contract call spread was executed on the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), targeting a move from $70 to $90 by March 20, 2026. This multi-leg options trade occurred at a VWAP of $4.13 per contract, with buyers putting up over $207,000. If IBIT finishes above $90 on expiration, the profit could approach $793,000—a risk/reward ratio that clearly spells out bullish intent.
| Details | Value |
|---|---|
| Trade Type | Call Spread (Buy 70/90 Strike) |
| Expiration | March 20, 2026 |
| Number of Contracts | 1,000 |
| VWAP Trade Price | 4.13 |
| Spread Value at 12:30 PM | 4.30 |
| Net Gain per Spread | 0.17 (+4.0%) |
| Stock Reference Price at Trade | 63.73 |
| Current Stock Price | 63.96 |
| Max Profit Scenario | Stock > 90 at expiration |
| Link to Multi-Leg Analyzer | Trade Analyzer |
Bullish Skew Indicator Hits 91%—Options Market Leans Optimistic
One number stands out for options sentiment: IBIT's 30-day implied volatility skew is at the 91st percentile—firmly in bullish territory. This proprietary skew measure places current sentiment among the most optimistic in the past 52 weeks, signaling that traders are pricing in a higher chance of upside relative to downside over the next month. For reference, a 100% rank marks the most bullish reading of the year; IBIT is knocking on the door of that high watermark.
Technical Analysis: Long-Term Outperformance, Short-Term Consolidation
From a technical perspective, IBIT has vastly outperformed the market. Over the last year, IBIT delivered a 100.8% gain, compared to SPY's 19.2%. Even in the past three months, it bested SPY by nearly a point (IBIT +10.5%, SPY +9.6%). However, short-term price action has cooled: IBIT fell 3.5% in the past two weeks, while SPY managed a slight gain. The current price of $63.96 sits just under both the 20- and 50-day moving averages, suggesting consolidation after a strong run-up.
| Duration | IBIT Return | SPY Return | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | +0.8% | +0.2% | 63.53 | 64.19 |
| 2 Week | -3.5% | +0.5% | 61.31 | 64.38 |
| 1 Month | -1.0% | +3.2% | 61.31 | 69.89 |
| 3 Month | +10.5% | +9.6% | 56.63 | 69.89 |
| 6 Month | +24.3% | +11.8% | 42.98 | 69.89 |
| 1 Year | +100.8% | +19.3% | 30.24 | 69.89 |
| YTD | +20.5% | +11.2% | 42.98 | 69.89 |
Shorter-term, IBIT trades just 1.4% below its 20-day moving average and 1.5% below its 50-day, with a robust 20% gap above its 250-day average. Momentum cooled recently, but longer-term strength is intact, and the sharp positive divergence over 250 days highlights the uptrend's depth.
Strategic Takeaway: Ambitious Profit Target Signals Bullish Confidence
This $207,000 call spread wager gives traders exposure to an aggressive upside move in IBIT, aiming for $90 by March 2026. The market’s 91% bullish skew and the ETF’s outperformance over the past year reinforce the sense of calculated optimism behind the trade. For investors looking to research more multi-leg options strategies, visit the Market Chameleon Multi-Leg Option Trades Screener.
Bottom line: While this large call spread signals bold confidence, the break-even requires a considerable climb by expiration. But with options market signals and long-term trends lining up, the buyers appear to be betting the uptrend can regain steam. Will IBIT rally another 40%+ by next March? Only time—and Bitcoin’s next big swing—will tell.
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