Click to view the earnings moves in FAST
FAST’s 4.7% Post-Earnings Drop: Typical Overreaction or Set-Up for a Bounce?
Fastenal Company (NASDAQ: FAST) just released its Q3 2025 results, and the initial market reaction was sharply negative—shares fell 4.7% to $43.76 following the announcement. That move stands out, but it’s worth asking: does this kind of earnings-day volatility usually persist for FAST, or do the numbers suggest something different happens next?
What’s Behind the Move? Key Financials & Context
This quarter’s results showed net sales up 11.7% year-over-year and net income climbing 12.6%. Operating margins and per-share profits both improved. While those numbers look solid on the surface, sluggish industrial production and subtle changes in customer and product mix might be weighing on sentiment. Options market expectations were already high, with a predicted ±5.6% move. Today’s price action is on the larger side of normal—but does that set up opportunity for contrarian traders?
FAST’s Historical Earnings Reactions: More Often Up Than Down
Diving into the data, FAST actually has a historical tendency to bounce after earnings, even after rough opening days. Over the past 12 quarters:
- Average return on earnings day: +1.9%
- 58.3% of earnings days close higher, versus 41.7% down moves
- The stock opens with an average gap up +0.8%, but the real story is in intraday volatility: FAST averages a swing to the high of +3.0% and to the low of -2.3% each earnings day
- From open to close, the stock drifts up on average +1.0%, again with 58.3% of days finishing in the green
Curious for the full breakdown of FAST’s earnings day stats? You can explore the complete historical earnings move page here.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.9% | +0.8% | +3.0% | -2.3% | +1.0% |
| % of Moves Up | 58.3% | 50.0% | 58.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 41.7% | 50.0% | 41.7% |
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% |
| Max Absolute Return | 9.8% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
How About the Days After? The Data Shows Resilience
Maybe the most compelling stat for FAST-watchers: the stock typically bounces after rough earnings days. Historically, FAST averages a +1.4% gain the very next day post-earnings, and it rises 81.8% of the time. Two weeks after earnings, FAST averages a +2.9% gain, closing higher 63.6% of the time.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.7% | +1.4% | +2.9% |
| % of Moves Up | 81.8% | 72.7% | 63.6% | 72.7% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 18.2% | 27.3% | 36.4% | 27.3% | 36.4% |
Takeaway: Today’s Dip—Buy Signal or Bearish Harbinger?
FAST’s latest 4.7% slide certainly turned heads, especially given it exceeded the typical options-implied move. But, the historical data shows this isn’t the first time the stock has tumbled post-earnings—nor is it the first time it’s staged a comeback in the days following. With more than half of post-earnings moves ending positive and 81.8% of next-day closes historically in the green, traders and investors will be watching for signs of a rebound.
Want to see every quarter’s detail? Check the full historical FAST earnings move breakdown here.
While nothing’s guaranteed, Fastenal’s post-earnings playbook is one worth studying closely, especially for those weighing if this week’s negative reaction offers opportunity—or signals something bigger ahead.
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