Click to view the earnings moves in JNJ
Johnson & Johnson’s Big Earnings Day: Will History Repeat, or Is Change in the Air?
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is in the spotlight today—not just for posting its quarterly earnings, but also after making headlines with its plan to separate its orthopaedics business, DePuy Synthes. The news sent ripples through the market, but if you’re hoping for fireworks, history might be telling you to curb your expectations.
Earnings Volatility: Less Excitement Than You’d Think?
Let’s look at what usually happens on JNJ earnings day. Over the last 12 quarters, the stock’s average return on the actual earnings day has been a modest +0.5%, with positive moves only one-third of the time. Downside moves have outnumbered upside, occurring 58.3% of the time. The options market was bracing for a much bigger swing today (a ±3.3% move), but that’s a wider range than JNJ typically delivers, suggesting some investors were hoping for a rare surprise. For the record, last quarter’s move was an outlier at 6.2%.
Here’s how the numbers stack up:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.5% | +0.1% | +1.9% | -1.6% | +0.4% |
| % of Moves Up | 33.3% | 50.0% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 58.3% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
How Big Are JNJ’s Typical Earnings Moves?
While the average move is subdued, JNJ’s maximum swing in recent quarters has topped 6.2%, showing that big surprises do happen, albeit rarely. Most of the time, though, absolute average moves stick closer to 2.4%. Check out the data:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% |
| Max Absolute Return | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
For more granular statistics and to see trends over dozens of quarters, visit this full JNJ earnings move history page.
What Happens After the Earnings Dust Settles?
Want to know how JNJ usually performs in the days and weeks following its report? Here’s the story: on average, the stock is flat one day after earnings (0.0%), but historically, two days out, the return nudges up (+0.3%). There’s a gentle upward drift out to two weeks, but the numbers suggest any excitement usually fizzles pretty quickly.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | 0.0% | +0.3% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +0.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 63.6% | 63.6% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 36.4% | 36.4% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 36.4% |
Options Traders Zero In on a New Favorite
The options market wasn’t snoozing today: 36,763 JNJ contracts changed hands—more than usual. The single hottest ticket was the 17-Oct-25 192.5 Call. Here’s a snapshot:
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 17-Oct-25 192.5 C |
| Volume | 4,256 |
| VWAP price | 0.81 |
| Open interest | 6,000 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 2.51 |
Orthopaedics Spin-off: Will It Shift the Narrative?
The market is also reacting to JNJ’s blockbuster announcement to spin off its orthopaedics unit, DePuy Synthes—a move that will refocus JNJ on high-growth segments and, if management delivers, could spark new enthusiasm down the road. This catalyst, together with the usual post-earnings trading, makes this a pivotal moment for the stock. But for now, if history is any guide, today’s move may not match the options market’s bold expectations.
The Takeaway
Despite all the news, JNJ has a reputation for delivering modest moves on earnings days, with post-earnings drift slightly positive. Still, with strategic shifts afoot and an options market bracing for volatility, it could be the quarter that bucks the trend. Curious how JNJ moves after past reports? Dive into the historical numbers here and see if this time is really different.
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