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BAC Jumps 5.2% After Earnings—How Does This Compare to Its Usual Moves?
Bank of America (BAC) surprised the market today, leaping 5.2% following its third quarter 2025 earnings release—blowing past the ±3.9% move the options market was bracing for. With nearly 232,000 options traded, and the 17-Oct-25 54 Call leading the action, traders and investors are left asking: Is this just the start, or a classic post-earnings fade?
What History Tells Us: BAC's Typical Earnings-Day Moves
If today’s rally felt dramatic, that’s because it was—historically, BAC’s average earnings-day return sits at only +1.5%. And on most earnings days, the stock moves higher just 66.7% of the time. Today's pop not only eclipses the norm, but it's also rare: only once in the past three years did BAC see a one-day move as large as today's 5%+ jump.
Here's a breakdown of BAC’s historical price behavior around earnings—data that any BAC watcher will want to have bookmarked. (For the full interactive dataset, check out the historical stock performance page.)
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.5% | +0.9% | +2.1% | -1.9% | +0.7% |
| % of Moves Up | 66.7% | 66.7% | 58.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 33.3% | 33.3% | 41.7% |
Translation: The market generally expects some action on BAC’s earnings day, but today’s jump is at the extreme end of the historical range. While it’s common to see upward momentum (+2.1% open to high), it’s rare for the stock to finish so far above the typical earnings move.
How Big is Big? Absolute Moves in Context
Sometimes, the size of the swing matters just as much as its direction. Below is a table showing the absolute (i.e., magnitude-only) earnings-day returns:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Max Absolute Return | 5.3% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
Today's move lands almost exactly at the upper historical boundary. With that kind of action, short-term volatility traders are likely celebrating, but is this momentum sustainable?
What Happens Next? Post-Earnings Drift
History suggests caution. The table below summarizes BAC’s performance in the days and weeks following earnings announcements:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.1% | -0.5% | -0.8% | -0.2% | +0.4% |
| % of Moves Up | 36.4% | 45.5% | 36.4% | 45.5% | 72.7% |
| % of Moves Down | 63.6% | 54.5% | 63.6% | 54.5% | 27.3% |
Notice the typical pattern: BAC’s earnings pop often fades in the first few days after the announcement. But over the next two weeks, the trend can reverse, with 72.7% of periods seeing a move back to the upside. It’s a reminder not to get swept away by opening day euphoria.
Options Activity: Where the Action Was
Topping today’s option activity was a surge in trading of the 17-Oct-25 54 Call—likely a bet that BAC’s rally might not be finished yet, or at least a popular tool for hedging. Here are the key details:
| Option Contract | 17-Oct-25 54 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 24,431 |
| VWAP price | 0.10 |
| Open interest | 26,384 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.07 |
This surge in call buying hints at expectations of continued upside, at least among the more aggressive traders. But whether the momentum continues—or if the history of post-earnings drifts takes over—remains to be seen.
Takeaway: Follow the Data, Not the Hype
With BAC trading at $52.69 after a big earnings pop, traders would be wise to dig into historical patterns. Large earnings-day rallies in BAC are unusual, and often followed by a cool-off—though over the long haul, patience may reward those willing to ride the post-earnings waves. For more, don’t miss the full historical breakdown before you make your next move.
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