Click to view the earnings moves in CLF
CLF Smashes Expectations with a 17% Move: Is This More Than Just an Earnings Pop?
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) just delivered its third-quarter results, and the market’s reaction has been anything but subtle: the stock price leaped a whopping 17.0% today, leaving the options market’s predicted move of ±10.2% in the dust. So, is this jump just a knee-jerk reaction—or a sign of a bigger shift for this steel giant?
Historic Moves: CLF’s Track Record on Earnings Days
Let’s dig into the data. Over the last 12 quarters, CLF has been almost a coin flip on earnings day: it’s averaged a modest +0.2% return, with exactly half the time finishing up and half the time closing down. Interestingly, while the opening price often starts a bit lower (an average open gap of -0.6%), the stock drifts up by the end of the day, averaging a +0.6% move from open to close. Notably, there’s a slight downside bias, with average lows dipping -4.4% intraday versus a high of +4.2%.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.2% | -0.6% | +4.2% | -4.4% | +0.6% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 41.7% | 66.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 58.3% | 33.3% |
For a deeper look at how CLF has traded on earnings day over the past quarters, check out the full historical earnings move statistics.
Magnitude of Moves: Just How Wild Does CLF Get?
The market expected big volatility today, but a 17% jump is still eye-popping, especially considering CLF’s average earnings day move is much tamer. The table below summarizes the absolute size of CLF’s typical swings—useful for setting expectations and understanding the risk.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 9.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% |
| Max Absolute Return | 18.4% | 17.3% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.2% |
| Min Absolute Return | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
Historically, CLF rarely posts double-digit moves on earnings—making today’s spike a true outlier.
What Happens After Earnings? Trends You Need to Know
If you’re wondering whether the gains stick, the post-earnings picture offers some caution. While the stock tends to climb an average +1.3% to +1.6% over the following 1-2 days, the shine fades fast. On average, one week after earnings, CLF dips -1.4% and tumbles -5.6% over the next two weeks, with downside days becoming much more common.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.3% | +1.6% | +0.8% | -1.4% | -5.6% |
| % of Moves Up | 36.4% | 45.5% | 63.6% | 54.5% | 9.1% |
| % of Moves Down | 63.6% | 54.5% | 36.4% | 45.5% | 90.9% |
Translation: traders often sell the pop or new information causes a reversal. This could make today’s run-up tempting for short-term bulls, but the longer trend has not favored holding after earnings.
Options Frenzy: The Most Actively Traded Bet
Today saw massive options volume, with 89,643 contracts traded—more than twice the daily norm. The single hottest contract was the January 2026 $20 Call. Here’s how that trade looked:
| Attribute | |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 16-Jan-26 20 C |
| Volume | 5,120 |
| VWAP price | 0.78 |
| Open interest | 17,724 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.35 |
The volume explosion and sharp price move in this contract suggest traders are betting on even more upside—perhaps speculating that CLF could break through $20 by 2026, or hedging after this surprising jump.
The Big Picture: Is This Time Different?
While CLF’s fundamentals point to a recovering demand for steel—especially in the automotive sector—history shows that post-earnings pops are often short-lived. The magnitude of today’s move is far from typical. Will strong auto sales, government trade policy, and new global partnerships finally help CLF break this cycle?
For those tracking earnings volatility and price momentum, it’s never been more important to check the historical earnings move page for CLF.
With rare earths and trade deals also on the horizon, Cleveland-Cliffs could have more catalysts ahead—but as history suggests, savvy traders should stay nimble after an outsized move like today’s.
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