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AT&T Stock Drops 2.7% on Earnings Day—Is This Just a Blip or the Start of a Trend?
AT&T (T) released its highly anticipated third-quarter results today, and while the numbers beat expectations in many respects, the market wasn’t immediately impressed: shares dropped -2.7% to $25.40 in morning trading. This move came despite options markets expecting a much larger swing (±4.8%), and against a backdrop of upbeat commentary from AT&T’s leadership about customer growth and operational momentum.
Strong Fundamentals, Surprising Stock Reaction
CEO John Stankey struck a bullish tone, highlighting AT&T’s differentiated investment-led strategy and strong quarterly metrics: $30.7 billion in revenues, adjusted EPS of $0.54 (flat year-over-year), and record-setting free cash flow. Yet, instead of following its usual post-earnings playbook—where history suggests a tendency for gains—T found itself moving lower, diverging from the bullish trend we often see around its earnings releases.
Today’s options volume surged to 80,534 contracts as traders responded to the news. The single most traded option was the 31-Oct-25 26 C call contract. Here’s a quick snapshot of that contract’s activity:
| Attribute | |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 31-Oct-25 26 C |
| Volume | 8,931 |
| VWAP price | 0.19 |
| Open interest | 1,332 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.76 |
What Does History Say About AT&T’s Earnings Moves?
Historically, AT&T’s stock price has actually had a positive tilt around earnings. Over the past 12 quarters:
- Average move on earnings day: +1.5%
- 75% of earnings days closed higher, 25% closed lower
- On average, the biggest push from open to high was +2.8%, and the typical move to the day’s low was -1.8%
- The initial gap (open vs previous close) has been a coin toss: 50% up, 50% down
Here’s a concise summary of the statistics:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.5% | 0.0% | +2.8% | -1.8% | +1.5% |
| % of Moves Up | 75.0% | 50.0% | 75.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 25.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% |
For more in-depth numbers, visit the AT&T Earnings Historical Stock Performance Page.
How Big Are the Swings—And Do They Persist After Earnings?
AT&T’s earnings day swings can be much larger in magnitude than today’s -2.7% dip. The options market expected a ±4.8% move, while the historical maximum single-day move after earnings clocks in at 10.4%. Below is a table showing absolute price changes (magnitude, regardless of direction):
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% |
| Max Absolute Return | 10.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
What About After Earnings Day—Does Momentum Carry Over?
Looking past the immediate aftermath, AT&T’s historical data shows mixed results for post-earnings price momentum. The stock tends to be relatively muted the next day (+0.3% on average), but by two days out, the trend often flips negative (-0.8%). In fact, only about a quarter of the last 12 quarters have seen upside on the second day after earnings.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.3% | -0.8% | -0.2% | +0.1% | -0.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 63.6% | 27.3% | 36.4% | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 36.4% | 72.7% | 63.6% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
The historical bias, in other words, is toward gains on the day of the report—followed by choppier action and often slight pullbacks or consolidations over the next few sessions.
Takeaway: Watch for Reversions and Volatility Opportunities
Despite today’s downside move, history suggests that AT&T often surprises with post-earnings upside, especially in the opening hours of trading. While options traders geared up for a big move (which hasn’t materialized—yet), the days after earnings are frequently less predictable and even slightly negative on average. Will T’s shares snap back to form, or is today’s reaction the start of a different pattern?
If you want to dive deeper, check out the AT&T Earnings Day Historical Stock Performance page for detailed data and charts.
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