Click to view the earnings moves in UNH
Did UnitedHealth Just Defy History? A Closer Look at UNH’s Typical Earnings-Day Moves
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) just released its Q3 2025 earnings, reporting solid revenue growth and a raised full-year outlook. But the big question for traders: what’s typical for UNH when it announces results—and does history point to a likely move today?
Strong Results but Muted Market Reaction?
UNH posted third quarter revenues of $113.2 billion, a 12% jump year-over-year, and boosted its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to at least $16.25 per share. Yet, with the stock price only nudging up by 0.2% in early trading (recent price: $364.79), it’s clear the reaction so far isn’t the fireworks some options traders expected. The options market had priced in a ±6.2% move, anticipating high volatility, especially after last quarter’s -7.5% earnings day slide. Today’s options volume clocked in at 34,330 contracts, reflecting elevated attention from the trading community.
This lack of a sharp move begs the question: is a muted reaction unusual for UNH, or does it actually fit the stock’s historical pattern around earnings? To find out, let’s dive into the numbers.
UNH’s Historical Stock Performance on Earnings Day
According to MarketChameleon, over the past 12 quarters, UNH has averaged a -2.5% return on the day of its earnings announcement, with positive moves only 33% of the time. Downside moves happen twice as often as upside swings. The stock typically gaps down at the open by -1.9%, while about 58% of opening moves are to the downside. Even so, the open-to-close move tends to be mild, averaging -0.7% with equal odds for an up or down finish (50/50). Notably, the average swing to the day’s high is actually a +2.4% gain—showing UNH often offers upside potential intraday, even when the broader move is down.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -2.5% | -1.9% | +2.4% | -2.2% | -0.7% |
| % of Moves Up | 33.3% | 41.7% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 66.7% | 58.3% | 50.0% |
For deeper statistics—including a quarter-by-quarter breakdown—see the full historical UNH earnings stock performance page.
How Big Are UNH's Moves? Measuring the Magnitude
If you’re wondering about the magnitude, not just the direction, the average absolute move on earnings day is about 6.1% (matching options expectations pretty closely). Extreme one-day moves have hit as high as 22.4% and as low as 0.3%, but typical swings fall between 2% and 6% intraday.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% |
| Max Absolute Return | 22.4% | 18.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
After the Earnings Storm: How Does UNH Trend?
For traders betting on the after-effects, UNH has been fairly balanced. The average next-day return is a mild +0.2% (45.5% up, 54.5% down), and that tepid tone persists through the next two weeks, with little average change and roughly equal odds for positive or negative days. In short, big post-earnings momentum is not the historical norm.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.2% | +0.2% | -0.3% | -0.5% | -0.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 45.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 54.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
Key Takeaways: History Favors Volatility, But Not Lasting Momentum
If you were expecting UNH to explode higher on strong results, history says that’s a rare outcome. The stock’s default on earnings day is a modest move lower, a mild open-to-close drift, and limited follow-through in the weeks ahead. Yet the size of the intraday swings can be substantial—perfect for active traders and options specialists.
Want more details, breakdowns by quarter, or data visualizations? Check out the UNH Historical Earnings Price Movement Statistics for all the stats in one place.
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