Click to view the earnings moves in LLY
Did Wall Street Miss the Mark on Eli Lilly’s Post-Earnings Move?
With expectations sky-high, Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) announced third-quarter 2025 results that impressed on nearly every front—revenue soared 54%, earnings per share (EPS) ballooned, and guidance for the rest of the year got a healthy boost. Yet, in the immediate aftermath, the stock ticked up just 1.1%—well below the ±5.6% move that options traders were betting on. Was the market unimpressed, or does history tell a different story?
LLY’s Earnings: Big Results, Measured Reaction
This quarter’s highlights include explosive sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound, a bumper $17.6 billion in revenue, and a series of major pipeline and regulatory wins. With options volume hitting 4,512 contracts, expectations were clearly running high.
Despite all that momentum, today’s stock move is, on the surface, underwhelming. The previous earnings release even saw LLY plunge 14.1%, a reminder of how volatile earnings reactions can be. So how unusual is a flat or muted post-earnings response for LLY?
Historical Patterns: A 50/50 Earnings Gamble?
Looking back over the last 12 quarters, LLY’s immediate reaction to earnings has been essentially a coin toss: the stock averages just a +0.1% return, with a dead-even 50% chance of moving up or down. While the initial opening gap (from previous close to open) is a touch more positive (+0.8%), the odds are only slightly better for bulls (58.3% upside gaps).
Interestingly, the stock has often given up early gains: from the open to close, LLY actually averages a -0.7% decline, and nearly 60% of the time, the stock drifts lower during the day—even if the open is strong. Swings can be sizable: the average drop to the day's low is -3.5%, with a high of +2.5% on the upside. If you're thinking of trading the initial reaction, keep in mind this intraday bias to the downside.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.1% | +0.8% | +2.5% | -3.5% | -0.7% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 58.3% | 41.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 41.7% | 58.3% |
If you’re interested in more granular statistics (including absolute moves and min/max reactions), the full data set is available on this earnings stats page.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 6.4% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% |
| Max Absolute Return | 14.9% | 13.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Post-Earnings: Patience May Pay Off
While the day-of earnings action can be choppy and directionless, LLY actually shines in the aftermath. Historically, the stock averages a +1.2% gain the day after earnings, rising nearly three-quarters of the time (72.7%). One week out, that gain grows to +3.2%, with similar win rates, and at two weeks, LLY has historically been up +4.2% with nearly two-thirds of post-earnings periods positive.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.2% | +1.4% | +0.8% | +3.2% | +4.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 72.7% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 72.7% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 27.3% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 27.3% | 36.4% |
What Should Traders Watch Next?
LLY’s fundamentals look undeniably strong, but the options market may have overestimated the immediate volatility this time. Still, with a robust track record of gains in the days and weeks after earnings—even when day-of reactions are muted—the data suggests patience could be key. Keep an eye on continued demand for its obesity and diabetes franchises, as well as the next pipeline announcements and manufacturing ramp-ups, as potential catalysts.
For more on Eli Lilly’s historical earnings-day performance, you can dive into the details here.
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