U.S. Home Sales at Record Lows—A Key Inflection Point for Rocket Companies
Just 2.8% of U.S. homes—28 out of every 1,000—have changed owners so far this year. That’s the lowest housing turnover seen since at least the early 1990s, according to new data from Redfin, a company under the Rocket Companies (NYSE: RKT) umbrella. The current rate of home sales hasn’t been this slow in over three decades, signaling an unusually tight market environment.
Why Turnover is at Historic Lows: Mortgage Rates, Price Pressures, and Caution
Three factors are primarily to blame: Affordability, rate-locking, and economic uncertainty. Despite an uptick in homes listed for sale, stubbornly high home prices and mortgage rates hovering near 6.17% have discouraged both buyers and sellers. With over 70% of U.S. mortgage holders enjoying rates below 5%, few are eager to trade up into more expensive loans.
At the same time, inflation, concerns about job security, and general economic unease have many would-be buyers pressing pause. As Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics, put it, “America’s housing market is defined right now by caution.” The result: Only 37.7% as many homes have sold compared to the frenzied heights of 2021, and sales remain 31.2% below pre-pandemic levels.
Turnover Rate at 2.8%—The Data Behind the Decline
| Year | Turnover Rate (Per 1,000 Homes) | Total Homes Sold (% Change from 2021) |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 44.0 | Peak (0%) |
| 2019 | 40.0 | -9.1% |
| 2024 | 28.0 | -36.4% |
| 2025 YTD | 27.7 | -37.7% |
Table: Turnover rates for U.S. homes, illustrating a multi-year downward trend in housing transactions. Source: Redfin
Not All Markets Are Equal: Virginia Beach Leads, New York Trails
| Metro | Sales per 1,000 Homes | Year-Over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach, VA | 35.2 | +5.3% |
| West Palm Beach, FL | 32.6 | -8.8% |
| Tampa, FL | 31.2 | -13.7% |
| Indianapolis, IN | 30.3 | +1.4% |
| New York, NY | 10.3 | -4.0% |
Table: U.S. metros with the highest and lowest home turnover rates in 2025 (Jan-Sept). While Virginia Beach bucks the national trend with increasing activity, major metros like New York and Los Angeles lag significantly.
Product Mix Matters: Single Family Home Sales Hold Steadier Than Condos
| Property Type | Sales per 1,000 Homes | YoY Change | New Listings Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single Family Homes | 29.9 | +0.6% | 41.1 |
| Condos/Townhouses | 22.2 | -3.3% | 33.1 |
Table: Breakdown of U.S. sales and new listing rates by property type, showing relative resilience in single-family home transactions compared to condos/townhouses.
Implications for Rocket Companies: A Cautious Market with Pockets of Opportunity
For Rocket Companies, the dramatic slowdown in turnover poses both challenges and unique opportunities. The surge in rate-locked homeowners highlights the importance of flexible lending products and innovative real estate platforms. Redfin’s integrated technology-driven approach—linking search, lending, and brokerage—aims to meet buyers and sellers where they are, regardless of market volatility.
The Sun Belt slowdown, urban turnover lag, and strength in specific metros such as Virginia Beach point to a housing market in transition. With both demand and supply dynamics shifting regionally and by product type, market players must stay agile and data-driven.
Key Takeaways: Cautious Optimism as Market Resets
- The U.S. is experiencing the lowest home sales turnover in at least 30 years, led by economic caution and locked-in mortgage rates.
- Turnover varies dramatically by region and product, with single-family homes faring better than condos in 2025.
- For Rocket Companies and other real estate innovators, this is a moment to double down on technology, flexibility, and consumer empowerment in the evolving housing landscape.
While the pace of home sales is historically low, signals from certain markets and property types offer reason for cautious optimism as Rocket Companies and the broader industry adapt to a changing environment.
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