Click to view the earnings moves in NTES
NetEase (NTES) Earnings Drop: What History Suggests for the Next Move
NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) announced its third-quarter 2025 unaudited financial results this morning, with net revenues climbing 8.2% year-over-year to $4.0 billion and games-related sales up a robust 11.8%. The company’s solid performance—highlighted by continued momentum in gaming and cloud services—sparked a 2.4% uptick in NTES stock to $136.80. But with the options market pricing in a possible ±6.7% move, investors are now asking: how does NTES usually trade after earnings, and should you expect the unexpected?
Stock Performance on Earnings Day: What Does the Past Tell Us?
Looking back at the last 12 quarters of NTES earnings reports, there’s a fascinating trend. The stock has averaged a -0.4% return on earnings day—showing that big post-earnings pops are more exception than rule. Most notably, just one-third (33.3%) of the time did NTES close higher after an earnings release, while it closed lower two-thirds of the time. The typical gap from the previous close to the open is also negative (-1.8% on average).
Yet, it’s not all doom and gloom. From the open to the close on earnings day, NTES has managed a +1.4% gain on average—closing higher nearly 67% of the time. The data suggests an initial dip is often followed by intraday recovery or even upside surprises. On top of that, average intraday highs reach as much as +4.2%, hinting at volatility and potential for opportunistic traders.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.4% | -1.8% | +4.2% | -2.1% | +1.4% |
| % of Moves Up | 33.3% | 33.3% | 66.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 66.7% | 66.7% | 33.3% |
Just How Wild Does NTES Move? A Look at Absolute Returns
If you’re curious about the magnitude of NTES’s price swings around earnings (regardless of direction), check out these historical figures:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% |
| Max Absolute Return | 14.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.0% |
| Min Absolute Return | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
Post-Earnings Moves: Is There Follow-Through?
So what happens after the dust settles? NTES’s track record a day or two after earnings is relatively subdued: +0.2% the next day, +0.2% after two days, but with an average loss of -0.5% by day three. After a week, though, average returns rise to +0.6%, and over two weeks, to +1.5%—suggesting that longer-term investors sometimes see the best results by waiting out the volatility.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.2% | +0.2% | -0.5% | +0.6% | +1.5% |
| % of Moves Up | 54.5% | 54.5% | 36.4% | 54.5% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 45.5% | 45.5% | 63.6% | 45.5% | 36.4% |
For more data and a detailed breakdown by quarter, see the NTES historical earnings page.
Options Action: Where Is the Smart Money?
Today’s total options volume spiked to 1,572 contracts, signaling that traders expected fireworks. The single most actively traded contract was the 21-Nov-25 135 Put, with 425 contracts trading hands—a striking figure compared to open interest.
| Option Contract | 21-Nov-25 135 P |
| Volume | 425 |
| VWAP price | 2.07 |
| Open interest | 58 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 3.75 |
The heavy put volume could mean one of two things: some traders are hedging, expecting volatility to persist, or taking speculative downside bets despite today’s bounce. That lines up with the options market’s pricing for a possible ±6.7% move—far above NTES’s historical average change.
Key Takeaways: Will History Repeat?
While NTES posted strong numbers and continues to innovate in gaming, its historical pattern around earnings is far from a guaranteed rally. Volatility tends to be high, initial reactions are often negative, but intraday reversals and longer-term recoveries are common themes. Options traders are already bracing for action—so the real question is whether today’s buyers are about to see another surprise reversal.
If you want to see even more data, past results, and option movement charts, don’t miss the NTES historical stock performance around earnings page.
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