Click to view the earnings moves in LI
Did LI Auto Just Set Up for a Classic Post-Earnings Surprise?
Earnings day for Li Auto rarely passes without fireworks. With Q3 numbers finally out, and a noticeable 2.4% lift in the share price to $18.75, the question isn’t just about what’s in the numbers—it's what happens next. So, what can traders learn from LI's historic earnings reactions, and does today’s trading signal anything unusual on the horizon?
The Options Market Was Expecting More
Before the announcement, options pricing pointed to a ±6.9% move—a sign of just how much uncertainty was priced into today's release. Reality delivered a far milder jolt, with LI stock changing by just +2.4%. For reference, the previous earnings saw the stock shift just +2.9%, also a tame reaction relative to what was priced in. Today's option volume spiked to 15,234 contracts, indicating traders weren’t sitting on the sidelines despite the contained move.
Earnings Snapshot: Revenues Fall, Outlook Murky
Li Auto reported third-quarter total revenues of RMB27.4 billion ($3.8 billion), with deliveries dropping sharply year-over-year—down 39% to 93,211 vehicles. While operating expenses nudged down, the company still swung to a net loss of RMB624 million. Key commentary focused on a challenging environment, supply bottlenecks, and costly recalls, offset somewhat by enthusiasm for the new Li i6 BEV and robust AI-powered product adoption.
What’s Typical for LI Stock Around Earnings?
History suggests LI stock is anything but boring on earnings day, even if the move isn’t always up:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -1.6% | -1.1% | +4.0% | -3.9% | -0.7% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.3% |
Translation? Over the past dozen quarters, the stock actually averaged a -1.6% move on earnings days, splitting equally between up and down days. What stands out: Even though there’s an average upside intraday potential of +4.0% (open to high), the stock more often drifts lower into the close.
For a full breakdown of historical LI earnings moves, check out this resource.
How Wild Are These Swings, Really?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 8.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Max Absolute Return | 18.8% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 10.3% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
The average absolute move on earnings? A hefty 8.4%—confirming LI often delivers the kind of action that can surprise even the most seasoned traders, even when today looks quiet.
What Happens After the Numbers?
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.8% | +2.8% | +3.0% | +0.2% | -2.0% |
| % of Moves Up | 54.5% | 72.7% | 81.8% | 63.6% | 45.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 45.5% | 27.3% | 18.2% | 36.4% | 54.5% |
There’s a reason so many eyes are on LI after earnings: Over the past year, the stock has tended to bounce higher in the first 1–3 days after results, averaging +3.0% three days out with nearly 82% of occurrences being gains. However, by two weeks after, returns have historically swung to a -2.0% average.
Today’s Most Actively Traded Option: Bearish Bets Dominate
| Option Contract | 20-Mar-26 13 P |
|---|---|
| Volume | 3,000 |
| VWAP price | 0.29 |
| Open interest | 38 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 5.73 |
Today’s options flow saw the March 2026 $13 Put become the standout, with 3,000 contracts changing hands—well above open interest, and pricing sharply lower at 0.29 compared to a prior close of 5.73. The action here is telling: while the stock barely moved, some traders may be betting on lower prices—or simply locking in protection for long-term uncertainty.
What to Watch Next?
Given the history of outsized moves after results—and the fact that LI defied bearish historical trends with a positive post-earnings move today—there’s every reason for traders to monitor price action and options flow in the days ahead. Could a snap-back rally follow, or will bearish bets pay off this time?
Curious to explore more on historical earnings reactions for LI Auto? Dive deeper here for detailed stats and patterns.
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