NGD Shareholders Set for Significant Upside as New Gold Agrees to $7 Billion Merger with Coeur Mining
Combined Operations Forecast $3 Billion EBITDA and 1.25 Million Gold Equivalent Ounces by 2026
New Gold Inc. (TSX:NGD, NYSE:NGD) is merging with Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE) to form a new senior North American precious metals producer. Under the terms of the $7 billion all-stock deal, New Gold shareholders will receive 0.4959 Coeur shares for each NGD share—implying a 16% premium over NGD's recent NYSE American close. When the transaction closes (anticipated in H1 2026), current NGD holders will own approximately 38% of the combined entity.
Major Leap in Scale, Margins, and Asset Diversity for Both Sets of Shareholders
The new entity will operate seven mines in North America, with expected production in 2026 of around 900,000 ounces of gold, 20 million ounces of silver, and 100 million pounds of copper. Management projects combined EBITDA of $3 billion and free cash flow of $2 billion in 2026, compared to Coeur's standalone guidance for 2025 of $1 billion in EBITDA and $550 million free cash flow. This sharp jump is supported by lower overall costs, higher margins, and robust operational synergies.
| Key Metric | Combined Company 2026 | Coeur Standalone 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | $3 billion | $1 billion |
| Free Cash Flow | $2 billion | $550 million |
| Gold Production | 900,000 oz | Not provided |
| Silver Production | 20 million oz | Not provided |
| Copper Production | 100 million lbs | Not provided |
| Combined Market Cap | ~$20 billion | N/A |
Strategic Rationale: Strong Free Cash Flow, Accretive Growth, and Reduced Risk Profile
Beyond the numbers, the merger immediately enhances the combined company's ability to invest in high-return organic growth, including expansion projects at New Afton's K-Zone and Rainy River. It accelerates the path to investment-grade credit, allows for meaningful capital returns to shareholders, and promises stronger trading liquidity—projected at over $380 million daily—with plans to list on both the NYSE and TSX.
Silver will represent 30% of total reserves, placing the group among the global top 10 precious metals companies and top 5 silver producers. With over 80% of revenue from the U.S. and Canada, and a robust, diversified mix of gold, silver, and copper, the deal reduces single-asset risk and broadens operational reach.
Significant Value Creation for Both Coeur and New Gold Shareholders
- For NGD Shareholders: Immediate 16% premium and significant ongoing participation in a much larger, diversified business; exposure to accretive growth and capital market upgrades.
- For CDE Shareholders: Higher per-share value on NAV, operating cash flow, and free cash flow metrics; an improved balance sheet; and greater financial and strategic flexibility.
Management Synergy and Board Representation Reinforce Alignment
Leadership integration is a cornerstone of the deal: several NGD executives—including President & CEO Patrick Godin—will join the combined team and board, supporting seamless operations and retention of operational expertise from both sides.
Key Shareholder and Regulatory Milestones Remain
The merger must receive approvals from New Gold and Coeur shareholders (66% and a simple majority, respectively), along with regulatory clearances in the U.S. and Canada. Breakup fees have been agreed, and voting support is in place from key insiders at both companies. If all conditions are met, the deal should close in the first half of 2026, at which time NGD will be delisted from the TSX and NYSE American.
Takeaway: A Compelling Combination in North American Precious Metals
The all-stock NGD-Coeur merger represents a strategic leap in size, operational diversity, and free cash flow, with robust sector positioning and investor upside potential. NGD shareholders, in particular, will benefit from an immediate value uplift, diversified exposure, and participation in what could become one of North America’s leading precious metals platforms. Investors may want to monitor further proxy materials and integration milestones for additional details and opportunity assessment as this landmark combination moves toward completion.
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