McDonald's Delivers Steady Q3 Growth—But What Do the Numbers Say About Its Stock After Earnings?
Click to view the earnings moves in MCD
McDonald’s (MCD) just reported its third quarter 2025 results, sending its shares up 2.2% to $305.16—landing almost right at the heart of the ±3.2% move the options market was expecting for the day. With all eyes on global comp sales and continued loyalty growth, many traders are asking: how does MCD typically perform after reporting earnings, and is this move in line with the past?
Earnings Highlights: Another Quarter of Consistent Growth
Here’s the big picture from today’s earnings:
- Global comparable sales grew 3.6% (U.S.: 2.4%; International Operated Markets: 4.3%).
- Systemwide sales up 8%, topping $36B for the quarter.
- Consolidated operating income rose 5%; diluted EPS up 2% at $3.18.
- See full historical MCD earnings move statistics
Management called out sustained traffic and loyalty, plus menu innovation—fueling confidence despite a tough macro climate. But how has the market historically reacted to such results?
Historical Stock Moves: What’s "Normal" for MCD on Earnings Day?
To put today’s 2.2% move in context, let’s look at what typically happens to McDonald’s shares around earnings. Over the last 12 quarters:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.7% | -0.2% | +2.1% | -1.0% | +0.9% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
In simple terms: MCD typically sees modest (+0.7% on average) up-moves on earnings days, with slightly more instances of upward drift from open to close (+0.9%, two-thirds of the time).
How Big Do MCD Earnings Moves Get?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| Max Absolute Return | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
This shows that while the options market may sometimes price in bigger moves, most earnings days see moves under 2.5%, with only rare swings of 4% or more.
After the Hype: What Happens to MCD in the Days After Earnings?
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.9% |
| % of Moves Up | 45.5% | 54.5% | 63.6% | 54.5% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 54.5% | 45.5% | 36.4% | 45.5% | 36.4% |
Interestingly, the "after-earnings" drift isn’t huge, but there is a slight bias for upward movement 3 days to 2 weeks after results. More than 60% of the time, the stock is higher three days or two weeks later.
Options Traders Take Note: Today's Standout Option Activity
Today saw a notable surge in MCD options volume, totaling 21,602 contracts—a sign that the market was bracing for action. The most actively traded single-leg contract? It’s a 07-Nov-25 310 Call. Here’s a closer look:
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 07-Nov-25 310 C |
| Volume | 1,337 |
| VWAP price | 1.80 |
| Open interest | 1,330 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 1.19 |
This contract saw both the highest activity and open interest near today’s price level, possibly reflecting expectations for continued post-earnings momentum—or simply heightened speculation from both bulls and bears.
Takeaway: MCD Moves on Earnings—But Rarely Goes Wild
If you were expecting fireworks from MCD, today’s move is about par for the course. Historically, MCD shares tend to post modest but steady gains after earnings—rarely making outsized swings but showing a clear bias toward grinding higher, especially a few days post-report. The options market, as usual, seemed to price in just a bit more volatility than we saw.
Curious about the numbers? Dive deeper into the full historical MCD earnings performance page for even more insights.
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