AFFO Guidance Holds Steady for Americold Despite Lower Occupancy and Warehouse Volumes

Americold Maintains Adjusted FFO Outlook While Warehouse Headwinds Persist

Americold Realty Trust (NYSE: COLD), a leader in temperature-controlled logistics, reported third quarter 2025 results marked by revenue and volume softness—but steady cash generation and reaffirmed full-year guidance. While global warehouse revenues decreased 0.8% year-over-year and occupancy trends slipped, Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) per share held flat at $0.35 for the quarter, consistent with Q3 2024. The company’s 2025 AFFO outlook of $1.39–$1.45 per share also remains unchanged, reflecting management’s disciplined execution amid an evolving industry backdrop.

Margins Tighten as Warehouse Segment Faces Lower Volumes

Despite an inflationary environment and heightened cold storage competition, Americold continued to focus on operational execution. The warehouse segment’s economic occupancy declined to 73.8% in Q3 (down 2.9 percentage points from the prior year), mirroring broader softness in food production and consumer conservatism. Average economic occupied pallets for the segment fell 4.2%, and physical occupancy dropped to 62.8%. As a result, global warehouse segment NOI and margins tightened, as seen in the table below:

Resilient Contract Structure Helps Mitigate Industry Volatility

A major highlight for Americold remains the stickiness and security of its contract portfolio. For Q3, 60% of warehouse segment rent and storage revenues came from fixed commitment contracts, with 63.6% of total warehouse revenues protected under fixed commitments or leases. This contractual structure helped support consistent revenue per occupied pallet: global rent and storage revenue per economic occupied pallet rose 3.9% to $64.37, while warehouse services revenue per throughput pallet climbed 2.4% year-over-year.

Dividend Increased Amid Liquidity and Leverage Management

Americold raised its dividend by 5% to $0.23 per share for Q3 2025, despite a net loss of $0.04 per share driven by margin pressures and increased selling, general, and administrative expenses. The company’s balance sheet reflects ample liquidity ($798.9M as of September 30), net debt of $4.1B (with 91.2% fixed-rate coverage), and a net debt to pro forma Core EBITDA ratio of approximately 6.7x. These measures underpin both operational flexibility and a steady payout.

Full-Year Outlook Reaffirmed as Rate Increases Offset Volume Pressures

Management reiterated guidance for 2025, expecting warehouse segment same-store revenue growth of (4.0%) to 0.0%, but anticipating 1.0–2.0% increases in rent, storage, and services revenue per pallet. Adjusted FFO per share is forecasted between $1.39 and $1.45, signaling confidence in Americold’s ability to offset volume headwinds with disciplined pricing and operational improvement. Investments in labor, technology, and partnerships remain priorities for unlocking future value, according to CEO Rob Chambers.

Key Takeaway: Fundamentals Stable Amid Cyclical Challenges

Americold’s third quarter results reflect industry headwinds, but also showcase the company’s resilient cash generation, sticky customer relationships, and conservative financial management. Investors watching COLD can note that, despite tighter margins and softer occupancy, core guidance is unchanged and dividend growth continues—making Americold’s defensive cold-storage model worth watching as market cycles play out.

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