Click to view the earnings moves in COP
ConocoPhillips Delivers, But Will the Stock Move?
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) announced its Q3 2025 results today, boosting its quarterly dividend by 8% and delivering strong operational numbers—yet, traders and investors might be just as interested in what comes next. With the options market expecting a ±3.1% move ahead of earnings and the stock trading near $87.57 (down just 0.1%), will COP finally break from its history of relatively muted earnings reactions?
Q3 Results in Focus
The oil giant reported earnings per share of $1.38 ($2.0B in adjusted earnings) and cash from operations topping $5.4 billion for the quarter. Key highlights include:
- Dividend hiked 8% to $0.84/share
- Raised production guidance for 2025 to 2.375 MMBOED
- Announced preliminary 2026 guidance with stable capital expenditures and modest production growth
With over $2.2 billion returned to shareholders this quarter and a solid forward outlook, you might expect fireworks in the stock price. But history paints a different picture.
Historical Earnings Moves: More Bark Than Bite?
Looking back over the past 12 quarters, COP’s stock hasn’t exactly been the wild child of earnings season. On average, the move on earnings day is a flat 0.0%, with more days drifting lower than higher. Here’s what the numbers say:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | 0.0% | +0.3% | +2.1% | -1.5% | -0.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 41.7% | 58.3% | 58.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 58.3% | 41.7% | 33.3% |
Surprised by the calm? Even though COP shows average intraday swings from open to high (+2.1%) and open to low (–1.5%), the close-to-close change is nearly zero, and the odds of a positive close after earnings barely tip over 40%. The options market has often expected more volatility than actually delivered.
The Size of the Swings: What Are the Odds of a Big Move?
So how wild could a move get? Here’s the magnitude of historical price swings (not direction) around COP’s earnings days:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| Max Absolute Return | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
This shows the typical earnings day move for COP rarely cracks the 2% mark. It takes a real catalyst to trigger a move larger than 4%.
Post-Earnings Drift: What Happens Next?
History suggests the initial pop (or drop) isn’t the whole story—watch what happens after earnings:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.6% | -0.1% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.7% |
| % of Moves Up | 27.3% | 45.5% | 63.6% | 54.5% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 72.7% | 54.5% | 36.4% | 45.5% | 45.5% |
After the day of earnings, COP’s returns are actually slightly negative the next day (–0.6%) but then average a +0.7% gain one week out—so if you’re hoping for momentum, it’s not impossible, just not a high-probability bet based on history. Only about a quarter of the time does the stock move up the next day.
View the full historical earnings move breakdown for COP.
Option Activity: One Contract Stands Out
While overall option volume hit 7,411 today, one contract dominated the single-leg flow. The most actively traded single-leg option was:
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 07-Nov-25 85 P |
| Volume | 405 |
| VWAP price | 0.21 |
| Open interest | 17 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 3.23 |
This puts the spotlight on downside protection or speculation, as the 85 strike put traded over 20x its open interest, albeit at a fraction of yesterday’s price—a sign of traders repositioning after earnings and the drop in volatility.
What’s the Takeaway for Traders?
The bottom line: ConocoPhillips is a solid operator, delivering on both earnings and shareholder returns. But, at least historically, its stock tends to shrug off earnings with minimal drama, despite the options market often expecting bigger moves. The standout put option volume today signals that some traders may be hedging or speculating on renewed downside, but the overall data suggests muted price action is the more likely path unless a new catalyst emerges.
As always, consider not just the fundamentals and the options signals, but also the long-term trends and broader market mood before making any trading decisions. For a deeper dive, check out the full historical performance and statistics on COP's earnings here.
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