Click to view the earnings moves in DLTR
DLTR’s Latest Earnings Beat, but History Points to a Rocky Ride
Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) just reported earnings, delivering impressive top-line growth, a solid beat on same-store sales (+4.2%), and upwardly revised guidance. Yet, with shares recently trading at $111.36 (up 2.4%), the move is smaller than the ±8.4% swing the options market had been expecting.
This muted move raises a fascinating question for traders: Will the historic post-earnings pattern of DLTR—a stock that often stumbles at first but sometimes stages a post-earnings comeback—play out again?
Looking Back: How Has DLTR Performed on Earnings Days?
While this quarter brought upbeat news and robust execution, it pays to remember DLTR’s volatile track record around earnings events. Over the last 12 quarters, Dollar Tree’s average move on earnings day has been a loss of -5.8%, with the initial gap from previous close to the open averaging -4.9%. What’s more, DLTR has only seen a positive move on 41.7% of these reports—so historically, odds have favored the downside.
Want to see more stats? Check out the historical DLTR earnings moves page for the full data.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -5.8% | -4.9% | +3.5% | -4.2% | -1.0% |
| % of Moves Up | 41.7% | 25.0% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 58.3% | 75.0% | 50.0% |
The bias is clear: More than half the time, DLTR trades lower on earnings, with an average dip near 6%. For risk-conscious traders, it’s a notable stat, especially with the previous quarter’s move matching this average with a sharp -8.4% drop.
How Wild Do the Moves Get? Measuring Magnitude, Not Just Direction
If you only looked at average returns, you might miss the potential for bigger swings. The absolute numbers tell us how large those moves can get, regardless of direction.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 8.0% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% |
| Max Absolute Return | 22.2% | 13.8% | 9.5% | 16.5% | 12.8% |
| Min Absolute Return | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
In short: moves of 8% or more are not rare, and wild swings—over 20%—have occurred.
Post-Earnings: The Silver Lining?
While earnings day itself tends to bring pain, DLTR’s performance after the dust settles is a different story. On average, the stock is up +2.3% the day after earnings and maintains modest positive momentum out to two weeks post-report.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +2.3% | +1.5% | +1.0% | +0.5% | +1.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 45.5% | 63.6% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 45.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 54.5% | 36.4% | 63.6% | 63.6% | 54.5% |
In fact, DLTR’s average return two days post-earnings is +1.5%, with nearly two-thirds of moves to the upside. For traders, this hints that buying the panic—rather than the initial hype—has worked out historically.
Options Traders: Ready for Volatility That Didn’t Materialize?
Coming into this earnings release, options traders had priced in an expected ±8.4% move, based on implied volatility. Instead, DLTR delivered just a 2.4% gain at the latest quote—leaving many volatility bets underwhelmed.
Todays total options volume was 9,200, with the most actively traded single leg being the Dec 2025 107 put. That’s an interesting sign—some traders were positioning for a possible dip below $107, even as results looked solid. The table below summarizes today’s busiest contract:
| Option Contract | 19-Dec-25 107 P |
|---|---|
| Volume | 627 |
| VWAP price | 1.42 |
| Open interest | 2 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 6.43 |
Key Takeaway: Opportunity in the Rebound?
With historical data showing that DLTR frequently drops on earnings only to recover in the days following, today’s modest move might catch both bulls and bears off-guard. The big options bet on downside didn’t pay out, but with historical post-earnings bounces, there may still be opportunities for those who can tune out the initial noise.
Want to dig deeper into DLTR’s historic reactions? See all the data here. As always, remember that patterns can break and that each quarter brings new risks and surprises—especially with the current market backdrop.
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